313 FXUS63 KMKX 291119 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 619 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. 250 JET SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS NEARLY-STACKED MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MN/WI BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF LA CROSSE BY 12 WED. CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH WITH SHORT WAVE...ROTATING AROUND 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT SHOULD BE NORTH OF CWA BY 18Z. SHOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE...THEN SEE THE SHOWERS FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FORCING FROM ANOTHER WAVE AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDER AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH LOW LEVEL JET UNDER EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MAX. STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW FAR INTO SRN WI TO BRING SURFACE WARM FRONT TODAY. FOLLOWED A COOLER SOLUTION OFFERED BY A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT STILL BRINGS SOME MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN MODELS DIFFER IN MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW THROUGH REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM CENTERING THE SYSTEM OVER SW WI BY 12Z WED WHILE THE FATHER EAST GFS AND ECMWF ALLOW COOLER TEMPS INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA BY WED MORNING. AGAIN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOLLOWED. PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT AND HIGHER DEW POINTS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT BEARS WATCHING. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MEANDERED TO OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SFC LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY...OR JUST WANDERING A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETUP SPELLS CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT LEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY BOTH DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP AWAY THE EVEN COOLER LAKE AIRMASS. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVES...SO JUST KEPT A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...IFR CIGS...WITH SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE MOVED INTO SRN WI WITH INCREASING MOSITURE AROUND WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SRN IOWA. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO FAR SRN WI...BUT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN NW TO N CENTRAL IL AND WILL MOVE INTO SRN WI LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AS WELL. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN EAST AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT AROUND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. WHILE WINDS WILL BE EASING...WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO CURRENT HEADLINE EXPIRATION LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD IF THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR 50F DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL IL TO MOVE ACROSS THE COLDER WATERS OF THE LAKE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV