124 
FXUS61 KBGM 260012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
812 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
810 PM UPDATE...
NUMEROUS LOPRES CNTRS ON SFC ANALYSIS THIS EVNG, ONE OVR UP OF
MICHIGAN, ANOTHER OVR WRN NY AND YET ANOTHER DOWN OVR THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING CWA AT THIS TIME, WITH FIRST
BATCH HVG MVD UP FM PA IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. AREA OF SHOWERS
MVG IN FM WRN NY ASSOC WITH FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING EWRD. BACK EDGE
OF RAIN SHIELD IS HANDLED BEAUTIFULLY BY LATEST HRRR AND EXPECT
THIS TO BE ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY 07Z. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT
THIS WELL AND THE ONLY CHG NEEDED WAS TO RMV THUNDER MENTION THRU
THE OVRNGT. NEAREST IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE DOWN ACRS THE
VA CAPES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPING SHOWALTERS WELL ABV ZERO
TONIGHT. 

EXPECT LO CLDS TO LINGER THRU THE MRNG HRS WITH A BRIEF POTENTIAL
FOR PCLDY SKIES DRG THE MRNG HRS UNTIL PARENT H5 LOW DROPS ACRS NY
STATE DRG THE DAY. WITH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RMNG, ESPECIALLY IN CNTR
NY, SKIES WL CLD BACK UP BY NOON WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS DVLPNG DRG
THE DAY. 

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA AS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS EASTWARD ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SEEN WELL ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OHIO AND WAS MOVG EAST/NORTHEAST.
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OR
ALTERNATELY WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THOSE WHO LIKE PRESSURE
COORDINATES! WITH THIS, WAS ALSO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE END RESULT WAS INCREASING MID TO HI CLDS THAT WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY
00Z, THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL REACH WRN PA TO WRN NY AND PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
LIFTG OF AIR THAT IS ALREADY RISING UP THE MOIST AND SATURATED
ADIABATS. THIS WILL USHER IN A STEADY RAIN FROM SW TO NE ACRS C
NY/NE PA BTWN ABT 22Z FROM SW STEUBEN CO TO WILKES BARRE TO 02Z IN
THE RME AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX WILL BECOME
MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN TIME AS IT PASSES BY C NY/NE PA
BY 6Z-10Z TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AT THIS TIME. MODELS
INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 0C. SO I HAVE ADDED A
SLGHT CHC TO CHC OF THUNDER IN NE PA AND SC NY LATER IN THE
EVENING. PRECIP WINDS DOWN LATE TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AM, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND AS WE
ARE IN BETWEEN THE FIRST UPPER WAVE HEADING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HENCE I SEE LOTS
OF LEFT OVER CLOUDS AROUND SAT AM. SHRA WILL DEVELOP BY SAT
PM, AS BNDRY LAYER HEATING COMBINES WITH COOLING ALOFT ARRIVING
WITH THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIFTG. HENCE I SEE
PLENTY OF SHRA DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. SAT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY
AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE NY/PA BORDER. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MARGINAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS... SPRINKLES OF MORNING FLURRIES MAY LINGER FOR
AWHILE ON SUNDAY IN MOIST NNW FLOW PATTERN... ESPECIALLY OVER NY
STATE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -4 C WILL NOT BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY REAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LAKE ONTARIO TEMP STILL
AROUND +2... SO MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS MAY BE INLAND FROM
THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY... AS OPPOSED TO
FARTHER NORTH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

AFTER A CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE LATER MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS SURFACE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THIS PATTERN FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF
COURSE REMAIN VERY UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME RANGE. CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATING AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY APPEARS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT LEAST A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... ALTHOUGH HOW FAR BELOW
NORMAL WILL DEVELOP ON EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVNG AS LOW PRES
OVER WRN NY LIFTS NEWD AND DRAGS A CDFNT THRU THE FCST AREA. BACKEDGE
OF THE STEADIER RAIN...WHICH HAS ENTERED WRN NY/PA...WILL PASS
THRU THE CWA IN THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME. CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE
MVFR RNG THIS EVNG AS THE RAIN MOVS IN. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO PSBL
LATE...BEST CHC AT RME AND PSBLY AT HIER ELEVATION SITES ITH/BGM
AFTER FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPRV TMRW MRNG AFTER MVFR CIGS
LIFT/SCATTER OUT (MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER AT SYR/RME
TMRW MRNG). POTNL FOR A FEW -SHRA AT SYR/RME TMRW AFTN AS ANOTHER
S/WV APRCHS.

WINDS THIS EVNG GNRLY FROM THE S AT 10-15 KTS WITH G20...BECMG
WRLY AFTER FROPA TNGT ARND 10 KTS...THEN WNW ON SAT INCRSNG TO
15-25 KTS. 

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...VFR.

TUE AND WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH. WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY, NO THREAT
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...PN