124 FXUS61 KBGM 260012 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 812 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 810 PM UPDATE... NUMEROUS LOPRES CNTRS ON SFC ANALYSIS THIS EVNG, ONE OVR UP OF MICHIGAN, ANOTHER OVR WRN NY AND YET ANOTHER DOWN OVR THE PIEDMONT OF NC. TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING CWA AT THIS TIME, WITH FIRST BATCH HVG MVD UP FM PA IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. AREA OF SHOWERS MVG IN FM WRN NY ASSOC WITH FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING EWRD. BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD IS HANDLED BEAUTIFULLY BY LATEST HRRR AND EXPECT THIS TO BE ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY 07Z. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS WELL AND THE ONLY CHG NEEDED WAS TO RMV THUNDER MENTION THRU THE OVRNGT. NEAREST IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE DOWN ACRS THE VA CAPES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPING SHOWALTERS WELL ABV ZERO TONIGHT. EXPECT LO CLDS TO LINGER THRU THE MRNG HRS WITH A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PCLDY SKIES DRG THE MRNG HRS UNTIL PARENT H5 LOW DROPS ACRS NY STATE DRG THE DAY. WITH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RMNG, ESPECIALLY IN CNTR NY, SKIES WL CLD BACK UP BY NOON WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS DVLPNG DRG THE DAY. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SEEN WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OHIO AND WAS MOVG EAST/NORTHEAST. THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OR ALTERNATELY WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THOSE WHO LIKE PRESSURE COORDINATES! WITH THIS, WAS ALSO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE END RESULT WAS INCREASING MID TO HI CLDS THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY 00Z, THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL REACH WRN PA TO WRN NY AND PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL LIFTG OF AIR THAT IS ALREADY RISING UP THE MOIST AND SATURATED ADIABATS. THIS WILL USHER IN A STEADY RAIN FROM SW TO NE ACRS C NY/NE PA BTWN ABT 22Z FROM SW STEUBEN CO TO WILKES BARRE TO 02Z IN THE RME AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX WILL BECOME MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN TIME AS IT PASSES BY C NY/NE PA BY 6Z-10Z TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 0C. SO I HAVE ADDED A SLGHT CHC TO CHC OF THUNDER IN NE PA AND SC NY LATER IN THE EVENING. PRECIP WINDS DOWN LATE TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY AM, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN THE FIRST UPPER WAVE HEADING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HENCE I SEE LOTS OF LEFT OVER CLOUDS AROUND SAT AM. SHRA WILL DEVELOP BY SAT PM, AS BNDRY LAYER HEATING COMBINES WITH COOLING ALOFT ARRIVING WITH THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIFTG. HENCE I SEE PLENTY OF SHRA DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. SAT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MARGINAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION... BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S. SCATTERED SHOWERS... SPRINKLES OF MORNING FLURRIES MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE ON SUNDAY IN MOIST NNW FLOW PATTERN... ESPECIALLY OVER NY STATE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -4 C WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY REAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LAKE ONTARIO TEMP STILL AROUND +2... SO MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS MAY BE INLAND FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY... AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER NORTH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S. AFTER A CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE LATER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS SURFACE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS PATTERN FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF COURSE REMAIN VERY UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME RANGE. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY APPEARS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... ALTHOUGH HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL DEVELOP ON EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVNG AS LOW PRES OVER WRN NY LIFTS NEWD AND DRAGS A CDFNT THRU THE FCST AREA. BACKEDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN...WHICH HAS ENTERED WRN NY/PA...WILL PASS THRU THE CWA IN THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME. CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS EVNG AS THE RAIN MOVS IN. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO PSBL LATE...BEST CHC AT RME AND PSBLY AT HIER ELEVATION SITES ITH/BGM AFTER FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPRV TMRW MRNG AFTER MVFR CIGS LIFT/SCATTER OUT (MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER AT SYR/RME TMRW MRNG). POTNL FOR A FEW -SHRA AT SYR/RME TMRW AFTN AS ANOTHER S/WV APRCHS. WINDS THIS EVNG GNRLY FROM THE S AT 10-15 KTS WITH G20...BECMG WRLY AFTER FROPA TNGT ARND 10 KTS...THEN WNW ON SAT INCRSNG TO 15-25 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...VFR. TUE AND WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY, NO THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...PN