588 
FXUS62 KMHX 300442
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
LINGER JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH 
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD WILL APPROACH 
THE AREA BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS TO 30% FOR COASTAL 
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND 20% REST OF AREA. DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF 
AREA DRY REST OF NIGHT BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLAINS 
WITH CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. TORNADO WATCH WAS CANCELLED AT 
10 PM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC (MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17) UNTIL
1 AM. HAVE BEEN WATCHING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH
A DEEP AND PERSISTENT MESCALINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC SINCE
730 PM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN NW OF OUR AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR PORTION
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 11 PM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SO
FAR STORMS HAVE NOT WEAKENED WITH LOSS OF HEATING A SIGNAL THAT
THEY ARE BEING DYNAMICALLY FORCED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE COVERAGE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
REMAINS SCATTERED. LATE TONIGHT DRY SLOTTING SHOULD END ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/MET MOS FOR LOWS WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WILL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
OUR NORTH NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY RECOVER ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID
50S WITH GUSTY W/WNW WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN BE
SUMMARIZED AS DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE POPS ENDING THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE/UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRYING OUT
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL DIMINISH AND
SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE STILL BEING
REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT THINK THE TREND IS FOR IMPROVEMENT
AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OVER AND SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS WILL FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 09Z DURING THE PEAK OF DRYING. AN UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NC SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS 12-14Z WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD ALSO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY. 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME VFR
ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GUSTY SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE LEG WHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGEST. THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE SW LATE.
PER LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL...SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND SEEN IN MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN AND LINGERING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JME/HSA/JBM