588 FXUS62 KMHX 300442 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1240 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS TO 30% FOR COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND 20% REST OF AREA. DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF AREA DRY REST OF NIGHT BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLAINS WITH CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. TORNADO WATCH WAS CANCELLED AT 10 PM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC (MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17) UNTIL 1 AM. HAVE BEEN WATCHING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH A DEEP AND PERSISTENT MESCALINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC SINCE 730 PM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN NW OF OUR AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 11 PM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SO FAR STORMS HAVE NOT WEAKENED WITH LOSS OF HEATING A SIGNAL THAT THEY ARE BEING DYNAMICALLY FORCED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE COVERAGE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS REMAINS SCATTERED. LATE TONIGHT DRY SLOTTING SHOULD END ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/MET MOS FOR LOWS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WILL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH GUSTY W/WNW WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS ENDING THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRYING OUT SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL DIMINISH AND SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/... AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT THINK THE TREND IS FOR IMPROVEMENT AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OVER AND SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 09Z DURING THE PEAK OF DRYING. AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NC SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS 12-14Z WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD ALSO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SAT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME VFR ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE LEG WHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE SW LATE. PER LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL...SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SAT...AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND SEEN IN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING IN AND LINGERING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA/LEP MARINE...CTC/JME/HSA/JBM