240 
FXUS64 KCRP 282047
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A DRYLINE HAS MOVED 
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS 
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN STALL. A 
STRONG CAP AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT CONVECTION 
FROM DVLPG TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK ECHOES HAVE DVLPD JUST 
TO THE NE OF VCT COUNTY WHERE CAP IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. DUE TO A FLAT 
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND THE DRIER 
AIRMASS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PATCHY 
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COULD BECOME DENSE ONCE 
AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE S ACROSS THE AREA 
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY/AREAS FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES 
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...THEN SHOW A 
TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE 
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A MOD N TO NE WIND IS EXPECTED 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS 
ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL 
DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW RH VALUES. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND 
WILL RESUME BY SATURDAY EVENING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND 
SLIGHTLY WARMER MN TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...BUT STILL NEAR 
NORMAL.   

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF SEA FOG...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHD OF A COLD FRONT. VSBYS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM N TO S
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BDRY. A WEAK
TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BECOME A MOD OFFSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AT CAUTION LEVELS. WINDS WILL RELAX AND VEER TO THE E
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TO MOD EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYLINE HAS PUSHED E ACROSS S TX TODAY RESULTING 
IN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WINDS 
ARE PRODUCING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE 
BRUSH COUNTRY...HOWEVER WIND HIGHER WIND SPEEDSAROUND THE CITY OF 
LRD HAVE BRIEFLY LED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS 
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.  A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER 
CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO S TX IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE INTO SAT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE 
LIGHT WITH NO FIRE WEATHER DANGER ANTICIPATED.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AT 
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS UPPER 
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY 
WILL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG 
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FIRST 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON 
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES TO THE WEST. MOISTURE 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. UPPER JET APPROACHES SOUTH 
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW NEARBY...AND COMBINED WITH PW 
VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW 
WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD INCREASE 
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AS DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT 
QUITE AS CONFIDENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS  
CAPPING/VEERING 850S...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP FOR NOW. ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST... 
BUT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    58  81  59  80  63  /  10   0  10   0  10 
VICTORIA          55  79  51  79  58  /  10   0  10   0  10 
LAREDO            62  86  62  88  65  /   0   0  10   0  10 
ALICE             55  83  56  84  61  /   0   0  10   0  10 
ROCKPORT          58  75  61  77  65  /  10   0  10   0  10 
COTULLA           54  82  55  84  60  /   0   0  10   0  10 
KINGSVILLE        57  82  57  83  63  /   0   0  10   0  10 
NAVY CORPUS       60  77  62  75  65  /  10   0  10   0  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM