240 FXUS64 KCRP 282047 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 347 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN STALL. A STRONG CAP AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM DVLPG TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY WEAK ECHOES HAVE DVLPD JUST TO THE NE OF VCT COUNTY WHERE CAP IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. DUE TO A FLAT RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND THE DRIER AIRMASS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COULD BECOME DENSE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY/AREAS FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...THEN SHOW A TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A MOD N TO NE WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW RH VALUES. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND WILL RESUME BY SATURDAY EVENING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MN TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. && .MARINE...AREAS OF SEA FOG...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHD OF A COLD FRONT. VSBYS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM N TO S AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BDRY. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BECOME A MOD OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT CAUTION LEVELS. WINDS WILL RELAX AND VEER TO THE E BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TO MOD EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SAT NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER...A DRYLINE HAS PUSHED E ACROSS S TX TODAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WINDS ARE PRODUCING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY...HOWEVER WIND HIGHER WIND SPEEDSAROUND THE CITY OF LRD HAVE BRIEFLY LED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO S TX IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO FIRE WEATHER DANGER ANTICIPATED. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY WILL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES TO THE WEST. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. UPPER JET APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW NEARBY...AND COMBINED WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AS DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS CAPPING/VEERING 850S...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP FOR NOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST... BUT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 58 81 59 80 63 / 10 0 10 0 10 VICTORIA 55 79 51 79 58 / 10 0 10 0 10 LAREDO 62 86 62 88 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 ALICE 55 83 56 84 61 / 0 0 10 0 10 ROCKPORT 58 75 61 77 65 / 10 0 10 0 10 COTULLA 54 82 55 84 60 / 0 0 10 0 10 KINGSVILLE 57 82 57 83 63 / 0 0 10 0 10 NAVY CORPUS 60 77 62 75 65 / 10 0 10 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS... BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM TB/78...LONG TERM