973 
FXUS62 KJAX 281930
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED
STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE FROM THE SUWANEE
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A LARGER
STORM COMPLEX WHICH WAS TREKKING EASTWARD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCROACH UPON OUR WESTERN ZONES
BETWEEN 6-8 PM THIS EVENING...SPREADING ESE WITH THUNDERS TOM
ACTIVITY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS INSTABILITY HUGS THE GULF
COAST REGION AND STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT TO THE NE. ADVERTISED
80-90% RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS INLAND SE GA WEST OF
WAYCROSS AND OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CORE OF
HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING ESE OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5
INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENS. THE ROBUST SQUALL LINE
THAT WAS AFFECTING THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO HUG
THE GULF COAST REGION...AND BRING THE CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING EVEN
THOUGH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER LAND AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. 

EXPECT A DECREASE IN PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACTIVITY EARLY SAT
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEFORE A ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT AN FINAL LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NAM/ARW/NMM
INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE AS THE PRECIP
NEARS THE CWA MIDDAY. ADVERTISED 60% FOR ALL ZONES MOVING W-E
AROUND NOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES FALLING INTO THE 40-50% RANGE BY
4-6 PM SAT AFTN AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT
EVENING WITH A RAPID END IN PRECIP FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL AREA SAT...AND THIS
IS POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND HIGHEST
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED. THUS...ANTICIPATE A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SAT
WITH THE MAIN HAZARD GUSTY WINDS. 

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS TODAY NEAR 80 INLAND...WITH
60S TONIGHT...THEN MID/UPPER 70S SAT DESPITE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER BREEZY SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY
SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTS NEAR 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH
READINGS A LITTLE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S EAST OF A LINE
FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE.

BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
70S UNDER FULL SUN. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE NEAR THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND
TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE BEACHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND
WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUATION OF FULL SUN. ATLANTIC
COAST SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE ANOTHER NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY IN STORE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TIMING FOR
NOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. SHOULD SEE THE RAIN TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP REMAINS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. 

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT.
RAISED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  77  45  72 /  80  60  30   0 
SSI  60  72  50  68 /  80  60  40   0 
JAX  61  77  49  73 /  90  60  40   0 
SGJ  61  75  53  71 /  80  60  50  10 
GNV  62  78  49  74 / 100  60  40   0 
OCF  65  78  51  75 / 100  60  40   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR 
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/