973 FXUS62 KJAX 281930 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014 ...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING... .SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A LARGER STORM COMPLEX WHICH WAS TREKKING EASTWARD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCROACH UPON OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 6-8 PM THIS EVENING...SPREADING ESE WITH THUNDERS TOM ACTIVITY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS INSTABILITY HUGS THE GULF COAST REGION AND STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT TO THE NE. ADVERTISED 80-90% RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS INLAND SE GA WEST OF WAYCROSS AND OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CORE OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING ESE OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENS. THE ROBUST SQUALL LINE THAT WAS AFFECTING THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE GULF COAST REGION...AND BRING THE CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER LAND AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. EXPECT A DECREASE IN PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACTIVITY EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE A ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT AN FINAL LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NAM/ARW/NMM INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE AS THE PRECIP NEARS THE CWA MIDDAY. ADVERTISED 60% FOR ALL ZONES MOVING W-E AROUND NOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES FALLING INTO THE 40-50% RANGE BY 4-6 PM SAT AFTN AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT EVENING WITH A RAPID END IN PRECIP FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL AREA SAT...AND THIS IS POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. THUS...ANTICIPATE A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SAT WITH THE MAIN HAZARD GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS TODAY NEAR 80 INLAND...WITH 60S TONIGHT...THEN MID/UPPER 70S SAT DESPITE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER BREEZY SW WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT...LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTS NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH READINGS A LITTLE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S EAST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER FULL SUN. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE BEACHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUATION OF FULL SUN. ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TUESDAY...ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY IN STORE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TIMING FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. SHOULD SEE THE RAIN TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP REMAINS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. RAISED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TOMORROW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 60 77 45 72 / 80 60 30 0 SSI 60 72 50 68 / 80 60 40 0 JAX 61 77 49 73 / 90 60 40 0 SGJ 61 75 53 71 / 80 60 50 10 GNV 62 78 49 74 / 100 60 40 0 OCF 65 78 51 75 / 100 60 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ ENYEDI/SHULER/