543 
FXUS64 KLUB 281824 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
124 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT SAGGED INTO THE AREA WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS STALLED ON THE
WESTERN EXTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND HAS
EVEN RETREATED EASTWARD MORE RECENTLY. THIS EASTWARD RETREAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS AGAIN AND
THEN REGAINS A WESTWARD PUSH EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT
A FEW LOWER CLOUDS HAVE EVEN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR CHILDRESS. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES BEHIND
THE FRONT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. THUS...WE DID DO A MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS WERE ALSO MADE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATION AND MODEL TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT BROUGHT A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS STALLED AND EVEN
RETREATED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO BRING WESTERLY BREEZES BACK TO KLBB.
THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SURGES BACK WEST THIS
EVENING...BRINGING AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO KLBB AROUND 00Z OR
01Z. KCDS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...WITH A CONTINUATION
OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...A BATCH OF CLOUDS AROUND
3000 FT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND KCDS...AND COULD LINGER
THERE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO..OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON
CIGS AROUND KCDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE CREATING
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...WE
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...THOUGH AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE MID-UPPER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES 
THROUGH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES 
COMPARED TO THURSDAY UNDERNEATH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. SOUNDING 
PROFILES INDICATE AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE...BUT FORTUNATELY THE AMOUNT OF DRYING BELOW WILL NEGATE ANY 
HIGH-BASED SHOWER AND SUBSEQUENT WIND GUST ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. 
HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE EXTREME 
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH PLAINS GET INTO 
THE LOW-MID 70S WITH MID-UPPER 70S PREVAILING FOR THE ROLLING 
PLAINS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES AND PROMOTE 
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON 
PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87.

HEIGHT RISES WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A 
TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENSUES WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTLING 
IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO 
COOL OFF SHARPLY WITH A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING 
SETUP...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND 
ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE. 

LONG TERM...
NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF REMARKABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT 
NEVERTHELESS...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE ARE 
A FEW THINGS TO LOOK AT.  BOTTOM LINE IS DRY WITH PERIODS OF WIND.

MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE MID LATITUDES CONTINUES TO BECOME 
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING...TROUGH AXIS WILL 
EXTEND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING FROM A LOW JUST WEST OF 
HUDSON BAY.  A MINOR TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA SOUTH 
OF THIS FEATURE AS A LOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS PHASES WITH THE BC 
FEATURE.  THIS WILL HELP DISLODGE THE TROUGH AND SEND IT ACROSS THE 
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.  THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES ASHORE THE 
PACIFIC COAST AROUND DAY 8.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS 
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST WITH WINDS UP IN THE 15 MPH RANGE OUT 
WEST AND LIGHTER IN THE EAST.  SUNDAY SHOULD STEP THE SPEEDS UP A 
CATEGORY AND WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE 
AREA...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ALONG THE 
TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY 
LEAVING US WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE INTERESTING 
AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT /AT LEAST TO OUR SOUTH/ BUT THEN 
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TRIPLE POINT PERHAPS SETTING 
UP TOWARD OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN EASING NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN 
TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED 
TO FIRE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO FAR EAST 
TO DO ANY OF OUR COUNTIES ANY GOOD.  AT BEST...PERHAPS THE EASTERN 
COLUMN OF COUNTIES HAS ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE THE 
NORM WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  WEDNESDAY MAY BE OUR 
NEXT SHOT AT A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND/DUST DAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.  LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED AGAIN 
INTO THE WEEKEND.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  69  45  81  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TULIA         38  71  46  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
PLAINVIEW     38  71  46  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LEVELLAND     38  72  50  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       38  72  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DENVER CITY   38  72  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    38  73  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     38  75  44  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SPUR          40  74  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     40  76  47  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23