543 FXUS64 KLUB 281824 AAA AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 124 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .UPDATE... A WEAK FRONT SAGGED INTO THE AREA WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS STALLED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND HAS EVEN RETREATED EASTWARD MORE RECENTLY. THIS EASTWARD RETREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS AGAIN AND THEN REGAINS A WESTWARD PUSH EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT A FEW LOWER CLOUDS HAVE EVEN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR CHILDRESS. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT LAST TOO MUCH LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THUS...WE DID DO A MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS WERE ALSO MADE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATION AND MODEL TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .AVIATION... A WEAK FRONT BROUGHT A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS STALLED AND EVEN RETREATED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO BRING WESTERLY BREEZES BACK TO KLBB. THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SURGES BACK WEST THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO KLBB AROUND 00Z OR 01Z. KCDS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...WITH A CONTINUATION OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...A BATCH OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND KCDS...AND COULD LINGER THERE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO..OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS AROUND KCDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE CREATING ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...THOUGH AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ SHORT TERM... UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MID-UPPER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY UNDERNEATH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT FORTUNATELY THE AMOUNT OF DRYING BELOW WILL NEGATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWER AND SUBSEQUENT WIND GUST ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH PLAINS GET INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WITH MID-UPPER 70S PREVAILING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES AND PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87. HEIGHT RISES WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENSUES WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL OFF SHARPLY WITH A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE. LONG TERM... NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF REMARKABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NEVERTHELESS...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO LOOK AT. BOTTOM LINE IS DRY WITH PERIODS OF WIND. MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE MID LATITUDES CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE. BY SATURDAY MORNING...TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING FROM A LOW JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY. A MINOR TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE AS A LOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS PHASES WITH THE BC FEATURE. THIS WILL HELP DISLODGE THE TROUGH AND SEND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST AROUND DAY 8. SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST WITH WINDS UP IN THE 15 MPH RANGE OUT WEST AND LIGHTER IN THE EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD STEP THE SPEEDS UP A CATEGORY AND WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY LEAVING US WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT /AT LEAST TO OUR SOUTH/ BUT THEN INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TRIPLE POINT PERHAPS SETTING UP TOWARD OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN EASING NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO DO ANY OF OUR COUNTIES ANY GOOD. AT BEST...PERHAPS THE EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES HAS ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE THE NORM WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY MAY BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND/DUST DAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING. LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 32 69 45 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 38 71 46 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 38 71 46 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 38 72 50 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 38 72 48 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 38 72 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 38 73 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 38 75 44 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 40 74 47 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 40 76 47 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/07/23