439 
FXUS65 KABQ 281748 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE MID
TWENTIES EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KTCC. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AREAWIDE WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP AFTN HIGH TEMPS 1 TO 3 DEGREES MOST SITES FOR
TODAY...THE GREATEST AMTS IN E NM. NO OTHER CHANGES.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. BY SUNDAY...STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE STATE WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LOW
HUMIDITY AND STRONGER WINDS. THE CONTINUAL DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF WIND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH
A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BOOTHEEL OF THE STATE. LESS
MOISTURE AND FORCING HAS KEPT MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS WAVE EXITS...AND WHILE WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LESS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAY...SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S READINGS...AND NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL DIRECTION INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS/PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND TOWARD CO SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AS A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADS OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF THE RIDGE TOPS WILL ENDURE SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN BETTER MIXED MID SLOPE TO
RIDGE TOP AREAS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A POST-
EQUINOX HIGHER SUN ANGLE SHOULD OVERCOME THE CANOPY OF HIGH
CLOUDS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS FOR THE SHORT WAVE IT WILL TRACK
INTO CO WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION INTO NM.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NM AND CO BY
MONDAY...LETTING WINDS RELAX SOME FROM SUNDAY'S STRENGTH...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF
SUNDAY'S WAVE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ENHANCED WINDY/DRY DAY TO NM. SOME
DEEPER PRESSURE FALLS APPEAR UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...AND COULD
DRAG SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.
THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACTIVE...BUT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP MORE WIND
THAN PRECIP INTO NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONCE MINOR SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AT THE MOMENT MOVES FARTHER
EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
INCREASES DEWPOINTS OVER THE PLAINS MORESO THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS. SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY EVEN
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALA THE GFS...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE THAT EXTREME
IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH MAINLY LOWER
TERRAIN AREAS WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR TO BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE
CLINES CORNERS AREA MAY SEE A COUPLE HRS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT XCP IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE RGV.

WINDS START TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS LEE TROUGH AND MORE ZONAL FLOW 
DEVELOPS. DESPITE THE INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT STARTS TO 
DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL 
CONDITIONS OVER ZONE 104 AND PORTIONS OF 103. HIGH HAINES OVER THE 
AREA AS WELL SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A WATCH FOR ZONE 104 ONLY. 
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY NIGHT RATHER DISMAL OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 
TERRAIN WHILE ONLY PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL COULD SEE EXCELLENT 
RECOVERIES. THIS LEADS INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN...HIGHS 
WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE RGV TO THE TX BORDER...SINGLE 
DIGIT RH VALUES BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HIGH HAINES FORECAST FOR MUCH 
OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM. ONLY AREAS NOT SHOWING UP AS CRITICAL SUNDAY 
ARE THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE REGION/S MOUNTAINS. WHILE CRITICAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUBSIDE IN THE WEST BY SUNSET SUNDAY 
NIGHT...WINDS PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND POTENTIAL FOR 
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXISTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. 
THEREFORE HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A 2 SEGMENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH 
INCLUDES ALL ZONES.  

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BUT COOLER 
HIGHS AND LOW HAINES ARE LIMITING FACTORS AND NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 
CRITICAL DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASING AS AN UPPER 
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION 
NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO APPEAR BLEAK...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. 
VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102-105-106-109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING 
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104.

&&

$$