439 FXUS65 KABQ 281748 AAC AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1148 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE MID TWENTIES EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KTCC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2014... .UPDATE... BUMPED UP AFTN HIGH TEMPS 1 TO 3 DEGREES MOST SITES FOR TODAY...THE GREATEST AMTS IN E NM. NO OTHER CHANGES. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2014... .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. BY SUNDAY...STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONGER WINDS. THE CONTINUAL DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF WIND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BOOTHEEL OF THE STATE. LESS MOISTURE AND FORCING HAS KEPT MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS WAVE EXITS...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAY...SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S READINGS...AND NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL DIRECTION INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD CO SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AS A CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADS OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF THE RIDGE TOPS WILL ENDURE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN BETTER MIXED MID SLOPE TO RIDGE TOP AREAS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A POST- EQUINOX HIGHER SUN ANGLE SHOULD OVERCOME THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS FOR THE SHORT WAVE IT WILL TRACK INTO CO WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION INTO NM. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NM AND CO BY MONDAY...LETTING WINDS RELAX SOME FROM SUNDAY'S STRENGTH...BUT STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S WAVE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ENHANCED WINDY/DRY DAY TO NM. SOME DEEPER PRESSURE FALLS APPEAR UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...AND COULD DRAG SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM WEDNESDAY BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACTIVE...BUT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP MORE WIND THAN PRECIP INTO NM. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... ONCE MINOR SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AT THE MOMENT MOVES FARTHER EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS INCREASES DEWPOINTS OVER THE PLAINS MORESO THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS. SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY EVEN MAKE IT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALA THE GFS...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE THAT EXTREME IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH MAINLY LOWER TERRAIN AREAS WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR TO BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE CLINES CORNERS AREA MAY SEE A COUPLE HRS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT XCP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE RGV. WINDS START TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS LEE TROUGH AND MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. DESPITE THE INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER ZONE 104 AND PORTIONS OF 103. HIGH HAINES OVER THE AREA AS WELL SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A WATCH FOR ZONE 104 ONLY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL COMPARED TO SUNDAY. RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY NIGHT RATHER DISMAL OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE ONLY PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL COULD SEE EXCELLENT RECOVERIES. THIS LEADS INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN...HIGHS WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE RGV TO THE TX BORDER...SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HIGH HAINES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM. ONLY AREAS NOT SHOWING UP AS CRITICAL SUNDAY ARE THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE REGION/S MOUNTAINS. WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUBSIDE IN THE WEST BY SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXISTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A 2 SEGMENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH INCLUDES ALL ZONES. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BUT COOLER HIGHS AND LOW HAINES ARE LIMITING FACTORS AND NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD CRITICAL DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO APPEAR BLEAK...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102-105-106-109. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104. && $$