894 
FXUS64 KMAF 281703
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty this afternoon will become light
by early this evening. A cold front will push southwest overnight 
and result in a wind shift to the northeast to east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Wly winds will increase 15-20kts around 15Z and will persist thru
the afternoon. A cold front will turn winds ne around 01Z-02Z at
MAF, does not have a strong push, eventually push w and s after
09Z. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
The axis of an upper trough over CO/NM this morning will move east 
through the day with ridge beginning to build in behind it.  Upper 
ridge will remain over the area through the weekend with mild wx for 
the region.  By Monday the next weak upper trough will pass by well
north of the region having little affect on the area.  On Tuesday a 
stronger trough will roll across the Western U.S. and swing across 
the Rockies late Wednesday bringing a little cooler wx to the region
for late in the week.

Temps have been slow to cool this morning with most locations still 
in the 50s as of 09z with a few 60s south.  A band of high clouds 
associated with a shortwave are currently passing over SE NM and 
Western Permian Basin.  The surface wind will continue to swing 
around to the west over the next few hours veering to the NW during 
by midday.  A backdoor front will move into the Northern Permian 
Basin during the afternoon with highs a few degrees cooler for 
Snyder/Colorado City.

Highs today should be a degree or two cooler due to cooler 850mb 
temps but near unrestricted insolation this afternoon will result in 
another unseasonably warm day.  The front does not appear to move 
too fast overnight but should be pushing the Rio Grande by sunrise 
Saturday.  Saturday will be cooler with highs mainly in the 70s with 
an E/SE wind across the area.  Low level moisture begins to move back
in with the SE wind... could see low clouds over the east Sunday 
morning.  Highs Sunday into early next week return to the 80s.  The 
strong upper trough next week will drive a cold front through the 
region Thursday with a return to near normal temperatures for the end 
of the week.

Long range models do skirt the eastern part of the area with some 
light precip the middle of next week.  However rain chances too low 
to mention at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize today 
across the Trans Pecos, especially the lower elevations. W-NW winds 
will increase around noon and RH/s will fall below 15 pct around 1 
PM making for several hrs of critical fire wx. Fine fuels remain 
cured and with the expected wx the fire danger will be very high. A 
wind speed near 25 mph and a RH of 10 pct yields a Red Flag Threat 
Index of 6/10.

Fire wx concerns will again increase on Sunday, mostly confined to 
the Mtns and SE NM Plains. The thermal ridge will be sharp from the 
Trans Pecos into ern NM. Wind fields are modest with soundings 
showing mixed layer winds near 25kts across SE NM, although they are 
stronger farther n. There does look to be some high clouds and the 
mid level trof will not be in the most favorable location, but still 
with a well mixed PBL we expect that there will be a noticeable 
increase in winds later in the afternoon. ECMWF is more backed in 
low levels and holds the drier air farther w longer. For now will 
hold off on issuance of a watch, but one may eventually be needed. 
If system where to speed-up it would be a more impressive system, 
thus will need to watch timing.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper 
     Trans Pecos...Terrell...Ward.


&&

$$