894 FXUS64 KMAF 281703 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1203 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty this afternoon will become light by early this evening. A cold front will push southwest overnight and result in a wind shift to the northeast to east. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Wly winds will increase 15-20kts around 15Z and will persist thru the afternoon. A cold front will turn winds ne around 01Z-02Z at MAF, does not have a strong push, eventually push w and s after 09Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014/ DISCUSSION... The axis of an upper trough over CO/NM this morning will move east through the day with ridge beginning to build in behind it. Upper ridge will remain over the area through the weekend with mild wx for the region. By Monday the next weak upper trough will pass by well north of the region having little affect on the area. On Tuesday a stronger trough will roll across the Western U.S. and swing across the Rockies late Wednesday bringing a little cooler wx to the region for late in the week. Temps have been slow to cool this morning with most locations still in the 50s as of 09z with a few 60s south. A band of high clouds associated with a shortwave are currently passing over SE NM and Western Permian Basin. The surface wind will continue to swing around to the west over the next few hours veering to the NW during by midday. A backdoor front will move into the Northern Permian Basin during the afternoon with highs a few degrees cooler for Snyder/Colorado City. Highs today should be a degree or two cooler due to cooler 850mb temps but near unrestricted insolation this afternoon will result in another unseasonably warm day. The front does not appear to move too fast overnight but should be pushing the Rio Grande by sunrise Saturday. Saturday will be cooler with highs mainly in the 70s with an E/SE wind across the area. Low level moisture begins to move back in with the SE wind... could see low clouds over the east Sunday morning. Highs Sunday into early next week return to the 80s. The strong upper trough next week will drive a cold front through the region Thursday with a return to near normal temperatures for the end of the week. Long range models do skirt the eastern part of the area with some light precip the middle of next week. However rain chances too low to mention at this time. FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize today across the Trans Pecos, especially the lower elevations. W-NW winds will increase around noon and RH/s will fall below 15 pct around 1 PM making for several hrs of critical fire wx. Fine fuels remain cured and with the expected wx the fire danger will be very high. A wind speed near 25 mph and a RH of 10 pct yields a Red Flag Threat Index of 6/10. Fire wx concerns will again increase on Sunday, mostly confined to the Mtns and SE NM Plains. The thermal ridge will be sharp from the Trans Pecos into ern NM. Wind fields are modest with soundings showing mixed layer winds near 25kts across SE NM, although they are stronger farther n. There does look to be some high clouds and the mid level trof will not be in the most favorable location, but still with a well mixed PBL we expect that there will be a noticeable increase in winds later in the afternoon. ECMWF is more backed in low levels and holds the drier air farther w longer. For now will hold off on issuance of a watch, but one may eventually be needed. If system where to speed-up it would be a more impressive system, thus will need to watch timing. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Ward. && $$