660 
FXUS63 KICT 281105
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
605 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE 
LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOW-LEVELS...BUT DECENT LIFT AS THE TROUGH 
MOVES THROUGH. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES 
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA...YIELDING TRACE 
AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. AT THE ONSET 
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS FLURRIES OR VERY 
LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KS...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. 
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIMITED MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS 
MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF 
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING SATURDAY WITH 
FULL SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL HIGHS IN MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THE NEXT 
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 
SUNDAY...WITH INTENSE LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL 
HIGH PLAINS. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG 
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH 
CENTRAL KS. THERE IS SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PROGGED BY THE GFS 
SUNDAY...THEREFORE DIDN'T WANT TO GO HIGHER THAN THE PROPOSED WINDS 
ABOVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 
SATURDAY...AND GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. THE SHORTWAVE 
TROF WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A 
NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 
500-1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COULD 
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW (20-30%). 

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

WILL MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IN THE FAR 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY...UNTIL THE DRYLINE PASSES THROUGH MONDAY 
EVENING. A MORE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT 
NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHEREAS THE GFS IS MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED.
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS COULD GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER ECMWF
WERE TO VERIFY. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS...WITH LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SBCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

A WIDE BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WAS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM
OVER KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY 
INTO TONIGHT KEEPING GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LOW. LEE TROUGH 
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY 
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH 
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS PROGGED IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS SAT 
PM/EVE...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-30%. LOW PRESSURE WILL 
INTENSIFY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY 
WINDS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...GRASSLAND FIRE 
DANGER SHOULD BECOME EXTREME IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH'S OF 20-30% ARE FORECAST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH 
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  32  67  46 /  10   0   0   0 
HUTCHINSON      56  31  67  46 /  20   0   0   0 
NEWTON          56  31  66  46 /  20   0   0   0 
ELDORADO        55  32  66  45 /  20   0   0   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  33  67  46 /  10   0   0   0 
RUSSELL         58  28  70  46 /  20  10   0   0 
GREAT BEND      58  29  70  46 /  20  10   0   0 
SALINA          56  30  67  46 /  20  10   0   0 
MCPHERSON       57  30  67  46 /  20   0   0   0 
COFFEYVILLE     55  34  65  42 /  20  10   0   0 
CHANUTE         54  32  64  42 /  30  10   0   0 
IOLA            53  33  63  42 /  30  10   0   0 
PARSONS-KPPF    54  33  65  42 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$