660 FXUS63 KICT 281105 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 605 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 ...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOW-LEVELS...BUT DECENT LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA...YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. AT THE ONSET EARLY THIS MORNING...THE PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KS...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIMITED MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING SATURDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL HIGHS IN MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY...WITH INTENSE LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THERE IS SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PROGGED BY THE GFS SUNDAY...THEREFORE DIDN'T WANT TO GO HIGHER THAN THE PROPOSED WINDS ABOVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...AND GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500-1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW (20-30%). JMC .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 WILL MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY...UNTIL THE DRYLINE PASSES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A MORE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHEREAS THE GFS IS MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS COULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS...WITH LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 A WIDE BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WAS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OVER KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT KEEPING GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LOW. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS PROGGED IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS SAT PM/EVE...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-30%. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SHOULD BECOME EXTREME IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH'S OF 20-30% ARE FORECAST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES. JMC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 56 32 67 46 / 10 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 56 31 67 46 / 20 0 0 0 NEWTON 56 31 66 46 / 20 0 0 0 ELDORADO 55 32 66 45 / 20 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 55 33 67 46 / 10 0 0 0 RUSSELL 58 28 70 46 / 20 10 0 0 GREAT BEND 58 29 70 46 / 20 10 0 0 SALINA 56 30 67 46 / 20 10 0 0 MCPHERSON 57 30 67 46 / 20 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 55 34 65 42 / 20 10 0 0 CHANUTE 54 32 64 42 / 30 10 0 0 IOLA 53 33 63 42 / 30 10 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 54 33 65 42 / 20 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$