269 
FXUS64 KCRP 280923
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DENSE FOG THAT WAS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CWA EARLIER HAS STARTED TO MIX OUT AS LLJ
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SOME DENSE FOG IS
STILL OCCURRING IN SPOTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON CANCELING ADVISORY
JUST YET...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE PEAK OF MORNING RUSH
HOUR. EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SEA FOG IS
THICKER. ANY FOG THAT REMAINS AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING AS A SURFACE DRYLINE EMERGES EAST OUT OF MEX.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE REGION. DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BEHIND DRYLINE SHOULD
HELP MAKE TODAY QUITE HOT /BY MARCH STANDARDS/ WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WARMING INTO THE 90S. VICTORIA
CROSSROADS SHOULD WARM ONLY INTO THE 80S AS CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THERE THE LONGEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY IMPACT THE VICTORIA AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE KICKS EAST AND H5 S/W
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILE AND MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE H9 TO H7
HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF A STORM
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR IT TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BUT ATTM FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TODAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CWA. OTHER CAVEAT FOR
CONVECTION IS IF A SEABREEZE CAN ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON /SHOULD
ACROSS COASTAL BEND/ BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH VICTORIA AT THIS
TIME. DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO BACK THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT WITH A NICE DAY EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS/ECMWF 
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH AN 
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND ACRS THE PLAINS/ 
APPROACHING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER JET STREAK ENTERS 
THE CWA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. THE FOREGOING WL CONTRIBUTE TO 
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MSTR ACRS THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE PATCHY 
FOG FOR THE CWA EARLY MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER AT LEAST 
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS PROG 
PWAT VALUES TO EXCEED ONE INCH OVER THE CWA BY TUESDAY. WL FCST 
ISOLD CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED 
MSTR...INSTABILITY (GFS SOUNDING)...AND UPPER FORCING FROM THE JET. 
THE GFS MAINTAINS JET DYNAMICS/MSTR OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND 
THUS WL MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FOR WEDNESDAY. 
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM TO ENTER THE WEST 
COAST TUESDAY THEN ACRS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THIS 
SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. DESPITE 
GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING UPPER FORCING THURSDAY...THE 
POSSIBILITY OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTS AT LEAST 
MENTION OF ISOLD CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA.
&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF SEA FOG CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT SOME FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MIDDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS/. 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF A CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICALLY
DRY AIRMASS AND MODERATE TO GUSTY WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  59  79  58  78  /  10  10   0  10  10 
VICTORIA          85  56  79  52  77  /  20  10   0  10  10 
LAREDO            96  62  85  58  86  /   0   0   0  10  10 
ALICE             96  56  82  56  82  /  10   0   0  10  10 
ROCKPORT          83  59  77  61  75  /  10  10   0  10  10 
COTULLA           92  55  82  54  82  /  10   0   0  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        96  58  80  57  81  /  10   0   0  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       86  62  77  61  73  /  10  10   0  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT 
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA 
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM