269 FXUS64 KCRP 280923 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 423 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DENSE FOG THAT WAS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CWA EARLIER HAS STARTED TO MIX OUT AS LLJ ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SOME DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING IN SPOTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON CANCELING ADVISORY JUST YET...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE PEAK OF MORNING RUSH HOUR. EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SEA FOG IS THICKER. ANY FOG THAT REMAINS AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS A SURFACE DRYLINE EMERGES EAST OUT OF MEX. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BEHIND DRYLINE SHOULD HELP MAKE TODAY QUITE HOT /BY MARCH STANDARDS/ WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WARMING INTO THE 90S. VICTORIA CROSSROADS SHOULD WARM ONLY INTO THE 80S AS CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THERE THE LONGEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY IMPACT THE VICTORIA AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE KICKS EAST AND H5 S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILE AND MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE H9 TO H7 HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR IT TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BUT ATTM FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CWA. OTHER CAVEAT FOR CONVECTION IS IF A SEABREEZE CAN ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON /SHOULD ACROSS COASTAL BEND/ BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH VICTORIA AT THIS TIME. DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO BACK THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT WITH A NICE DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND ACRS THE PLAINS/ APPROACHING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER JET STREAK ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. THE FOREGOING WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MSTR ACRS THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG FOR THE CWA EARLY MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS PROG PWAT VALUES TO EXCEED ONE INCH OVER THE CWA BY TUESDAY. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MSTR...INSTABILITY (GFS SOUNDING)...AND UPPER FORCING FROM THE JET. THE GFS MAINTAINS JET DYNAMICS/MSTR OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THUS WL MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FOR WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM TO ENTER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY THEN ACRS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. DESPITE GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING UPPER FORCING THURSDAY...THE POSSIBILITY OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTS AT LEAST MENTION OF ISOLD CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. && .MARINE...AREAS OF SEA FOG CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT SOME FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS/. && .FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF A CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICALLY DRY AIRMASS AND MODERATE TO GUSTY WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 92 59 79 58 78 / 10 10 0 10 10 VICTORIA 85 56 79 52 77 / 20 10 0 10 10 LAREDO 96 62 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 10 10 ALICE 96 56 82 56 82 / 10 0 0 10 10 ROCKPORT 83 59 77 61 75 / 10 10 0 10 10 COTULLA 92 55 82 54 82 / 10 0 0 10 10 KINGSVILLE 96 58 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 86 62 77 61 73 / 10 10 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS... KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO... VICTORIA. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ RH/79...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM