784 
FXUS62 KMLB 280800
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT INLETS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY...

CURRENT...MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S UNDER MAINLY 
OVERCAST SKIES AND DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW. ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET 
WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE VIEWED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE 
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GOMEX AND 
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF OF 
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE 
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
EXIST DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS 15 MPH 
OVER THE INTERIOR AND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ALONG 
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. WILL NOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE 
ZONES HERE AT THE COAST BUT WILL AVOID ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND 
ADVISORY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES AREAWIDE BY EARLY EVENING. 

SLOWLY DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR 
SPRINKLES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL 
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE GOMEX AND ACROSS 
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER CHANCES 
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AREAWIDE 
AIDED BY THE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF AN 
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. 

WILL CONTINUE POP CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT OSCEOLA COUNTY-NORTH 
BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD AND TAPER BACK TO 30-40 PERCENT SOUTH FROM 
HERE FOR THE DAY PERIOD. MODELS HINT AT GREATER PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE GULF. IT WILL BE 
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANYTHING FROM THE GULF OR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA 
CAN MAINTAIN ANY STEAM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WILL GO 
WITH LIKELY POPS (60 PERCENT) FOR THE NIGHT PERIOD AREAWIDE WITH 
MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL FORECAST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FROM 
KMLB-KISM NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF HERE A FEW LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS 
WILL BE LIKELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE 
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY AND BE APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS 
LATE.  A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 
80S. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO SPREAD SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS AND PARTIALLY MUTE MOS
HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE MOSTLY UPPER 80S.

SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DISCRETE 
IMPULSES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE 00Z GFS DID NOT
SHOW MUCH QPF. SO WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITING DIRECT SOLAR
INSOLATION...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING 50
PERCENT...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT. A 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH EVENING THEN SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60...EXCEPT
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH WHERE READINGS MIGHT BE MORE
MILD IN THE MID 60S.

SUN...BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A COOLER
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S FOR THE MOST PART. MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MON-NEXT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD DROP INTO NORTH FLORIDA
MON THEN ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE SEAWARD INTO LATE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL COMMENCE BUT ONLY SLOWLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY VERY DRY AIR
MASS. THE 00Z GFS INDICATED IT REMAINING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY MON MORNING
TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...THEN A GRADUALLY MODERATION TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IS INDICATED. 

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH REMAINING OVERCAST...WITH 
ISOLD -SHRA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SHRA CHANCES INTO 
THE EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA FORECAST LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. 
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY WITH SE WINDS 
CONTINUING TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. 
ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. WILL LEAVE VCSH IN THE 
FORECAST FOR NOW...THOUGH TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED LATER IN THE DAY 
WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SEAWARD. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND OPEN ATLANTIC WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SE/SSE WINDS ARE FORECAST
AGAIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL DECIDE IF THE SCA GETS EXTENDED OR
NOT...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY. SWELLS COMBINED WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 7 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE.

BUOY 41009 CONTINUES TO REPORT A NORTHEAST SWELL PERIOD OF AROUND 15 
SECONDS. THE SCRIPPS BUOY NE OF FORT PIERCE INLET WAS RECORDING A 7 
FT LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 13 SECONDS. MARINERS OF SMALL CRAFT CAN 
EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER 
TODAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS 
ARE FORECAST WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE 
COAST LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

WEEKEND...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SAT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN ON SAT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE THE PREFERRED DAY OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 10-15
KNOTS. BOATERS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
MOVING OFFSHORE THOUGH. 

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SHOULD BE MORE GUSTY
AND THE OPEN ATLANTIC LOOKS POOR TO HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

MON-TUE...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO NORTH FLORIDA MON AND OFFSHORE
TUE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST ON MON AND THEN
TO THE EAST ON TUE. SPEEDS LOOK CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT MAYBE
10-15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH ON MON. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTHEAST 20 FT WINDS WILL APPROACH 15 MPH
WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD AND BORDERING VERY GOOD.
WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE IN TERMS OF FIRE SPREAD FOR ANY FIRE
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SAT-TUE...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SAT THEN
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 35 PERCENT FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST/NORTH
WINDS MIGHT BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TOO. MIN RH IS FORECAST BELOW
35 PERCENT IN THE NORTH INTERIOR ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS
WILL DROP OFF BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  68  83  55 /  50  60  50  30 
MCO  81  66  83  59 /  50  60  50  30 
MLB  80  70  84  60 /  40  60  50  40 
VRB  80  70  85  66 /  40  60  50  40 
LEE  80  65  82  54 /  50  60  50  30 
SFB  81  66  83  58 /  50  60  50  30 
ORL  80  67  83  58 /  50  60  50  30 
FPR  81  71  84  67 /  30  60  50  40 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL 
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO 
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS 
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY