784 FXUS62 KMLB 280800 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT INLETS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... ...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY... CURRENT...MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S UNDER MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES AND DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW. ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE VIEWED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TODAY-TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS 15 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. WILL NOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE ZONES HERE AT THE COAST BUT WILL AVOID ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES AREAWIDE BY EARLY EVENING. SLOWLY DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE GOMEX AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AREAWIDE AIDED BY THE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE POP CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT OSCEOLA COUNTY-NORTH BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD AND TAPER BACK TO 30-40 PERCENT SOUTH FROM HERE FOR THE DAY PERIOD. MODELS HINT AT GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE GULF. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANYTHING FROM THE GULF OR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA CAN MAINTAIN ANY STEAM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS (60 PERCENT) FOR THE NIGHT PERIOD AREAWIDE WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FROM KMLB-KISM NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF HERE A FEW LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. SAT-SAT NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY AND BE APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE. A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SPREAD SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS AND PARTIALLY MUTE MOS HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE MOSTLY UPPER 80S. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DISCRETE IMPULSES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE 00Z GFS DID NOT SHOW MUCH QPF. SO WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITING DIRECT SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING 50 PERCENT...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXTEND THROUGH EVENING THEN SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60...EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH WHERE READINGS MIGHT BE MORE MILD IN THE MID 60S. SUN...BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A COOLER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S FOR THE MOST PART. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MON-NEXT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD DROP INTO NORTH FLORIDA MON THEN ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE SEAWARD INTO LATE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE BUT ONLY SLOWLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE 00Z GFS INDICATED IT REMAINING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY MON MORNING TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...THEN A GRADUALLY MODERATION TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IS INDICATED. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH REMAINING OVERCAST...WITH ISOLD -SHRA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SHRA CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA FORECAST LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. WILL LEAVE VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...THOUGH TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED LATER IN THE DAY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TIMING. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SEAWARD. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND OPEN ATLANTIC WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SE/SSE WINDS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL DECIDE IF THE SCA GETS EXTENDED OR NOT...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY. SWELLS COMBINED WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 7 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE. BUOY 41009 CONTINUES TO REPORT A NORTHEAST SWELL PERIOD OF AROUND 15 SECONDS. THE SCRIPPS BUOY NE OF FORT PIERCE INLET WAS RECORDING A 7 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 13 SECONDS. MARINERS OF SMALL CRAFT CAN EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. WEEKEND...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SAT WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SAT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE THE PREFERRED DAY OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 10-15 KNOTS. BOATERS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THOUGH. SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SHOULD BE MORE GUSTY AND THE OPEN ATLANTIC LOOKS POOR TO HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT. MON-TUE...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO NORTH FLORIDA MON AND OFFSHORE TUE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST ON MON AND THEN TO THE EAST ON TUE. SPEEDS LOOK CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT MAYBE 10-15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH ON MON. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTHEAST 20 FT WINDS WILL APPROACH 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD AND BORDERING VERY GOOD. WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE IN TERMS OF FIRE SPREAD FOR ANY FIRE ACTIVITY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SAT-TUE...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SAT THEN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS MIGHT BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TOO. MIN RH IS FORECAST BELOW 35 PERCENT IN THE NORTH INTERIOR ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL DROP OFF BELOW 10 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 68 83 55 / 50 60 50 30 MCO 81 66 83 59 / 50 60 50 30 MLB 80 70 84 60 / 40 60 50 40 VRB 80 70 85 66 / 40 60 50 40 LEE 80 65 82 54 / 50 60 50 30 SFB 81 66 83 58 / 50 60 50 30 ORL 80 67 83 58 / 50 60 50 30 FPR 81 71 84 67 / 30 60 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK LONG TERM....LASCODY