802 
FXUS63 KICT 280443
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

OVERALL SPIRIT OF OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY FORECAST ON TRACK. DID TWEAK
POPS/WEATHER A BIT...NAMELY INCREASE POPS A BIT AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...AND ADD LOW POPS OVER CENTRAL KS FRIDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. STILL THINKING COULD SEE SPRINKLES AND/OR
LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL KS TOWARD
DAWN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF KS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
PARENT SHORTWAVE. MODEST HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING GETTING INTO CENTRAL KS ALONG THIS FEATURE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA WITH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM THIS ISSUANCE. THIS WILL PUSH THE SEVERE THREAT
EASTWARD. THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS THE SURFACE FRONT
EXITS THE AREA. SO BY MIDNIGHT...ALL NEAR TERM CONCERNS WILL BE
GONE.  
  
ANOTHER QUICK HITTING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MOVING FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTH THOUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXITING OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE LATEST COUPLE
OF RUNS OF THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT REGARDING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
THIS FEATURE. THUS HAVE LEFT THE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT IT WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.  

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN ANTICIPATION FOR SUNDAY.
LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN SATURDAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HAVE
FORECASTED WINDS EXCEEDING THE 30 MPH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A
FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY INCREASING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING HOISTED FOR SUNDAY
WITH THESE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS...IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS
REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND 70S ELSEWHERE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS.  

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

THE UPPER WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING...CAUSING THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS IS LOW...BUT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR IT.  

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY ACTIVE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL STALL NEAR THE
OK/KS BORDER. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS IT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS
TIME AND UP INTO MISSOURI. EXPECTING THINGS TO CHANGE...AS THIS IS
DAY 6-7...BUT LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE MID-WEEK.  

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD
EVEN MIX WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CENTRAL KS FRIDAY MORNING.
SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY LIGHT...DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH IN TAFS ATTM.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S BRIEF PERIOD OF EXTREME GRASSLAND THE NEXT
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY. A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
THE CURED FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS HAS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH. 

WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND WILL STAY
RELATIVELY LIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS. BUT SUNDAY IS THE BIG DAY WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 30MPH
LIKELY AND DRY FUELS...EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN
FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE
TODAY AS CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS GROWS. 

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  57  32  68 /  10  20  10   0 
HUTCHINSON      33  58  31  69 /  20  30  10   0 
NEWTON          33  57  31  67 /  10  30  10   0 
ELDORADO        35  56  32  67 /  10  30  10   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  56  33  69 /  10  20   0   0 
RUSSELL         30  61  28  69 /  30  30  10   0 
GREAT BEND      30  61  29  69 /  20  30  10   0 
SALINA          31  58  30  68 /  20  30  10   0 
MCPHERSON       31  58  30  68 /  20  30  10   0 
COFFEYVILLE     38  56  34  67 /  10  20  10   0 
CHANUTE         35  54  32  65 /  10  30  10   0 
IOLA            34  54  33  65 /   0  30  10   0 
PARSONS-KPPF    36  55  33  67 /  10  30  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$