802 FXUS63 KICT 280443 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1143 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 ...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 OVERALL SPIRIT OF OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY FORECAST ON TRACK. DID TWEAK POPS/WEATHER A BIT...NAMELY INCREASE POPS A BIT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...AND ADD LOW POPS OVER CENTRAL KS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING. STILL THINKING COULD SEE SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL KS TOWARD DAWN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF KS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING PARENT SHORTWAVE. MODEST HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING GETTING INTO CENTRAL KS ALONG THIS FEATURE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ADK && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA WITH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THIS ISSUANCE. THIS WILL PUSH THE SEVERE THREAT EASTWARD. THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS THE SURFACE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. SO BY MIDNIGHT...ALL NEAR TERM CONCERNS WILL BE GONE. ANOTHER QUICK HITTING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH MOVING FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTH THOUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXITING OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS FEATURE. THUS HAVE LEFT THE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT IT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN ANTICIPATION FOR SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HAVE FORECASTED WINDS EXCEEDING THE 30 MPH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY INCREASING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING HOISTED FOR SUNDAY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND 70S ELSEWHERE OVER EASTERN KANSAS. BILLINGS WRIGHT .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 THE UPPER WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING...CAUSING THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS IS LOW...BUT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY ACTIVE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL STALL NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SPREAD ACROSS IT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND UP INTO MISSOURI. EXPECTING THINGS TO CHANGE...AS THIS IS DAY 6-7...BUT LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE MID-WEEK. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD EVEN MIX WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CENTRAL KS FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY LIGHT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH IN TAFS ATTM. ADK && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S BRIEF PERIOD OF EXTREME GRASSLAND THE NEXT MOST CONCERNING PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY. A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE CURED FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS HAS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. BUT SUNDAY IS THE BIG DAY WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 30MPH LIKELY AND DRY FUELS...EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE TODAY AS CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS GROWS. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 35 57 32 68 / 10 20 10 0 HUTCHINSON 33 58 31 69 / 20 30 10 0 NEWTON 33 57 31 67 / 10 30 10 0 ELDORADO 35 56 32 67 / 10 30 10 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 37 56 33 69 / 10 20 0 0 RUSSELL 30 61 28 69 / 30 30 10 0 GREAT BEND 30 61 29 69 / 20 30 10 0 SALINA 31 58 30 68 / 20 30 10 0 MCPHERSON 31 58 30 68 / 20 30 10 0 COFFEYVILLE 38 56 34 67 / 10 20 10 0 CHANUTE 35 54 32 65 / 10 30 10 0 IOLA 34 54 33 65 / 0 30 10 0 PARSONS-KPPF 36 55 33 67 / 10 30 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$