922 
FXUS64 KMOB 280436 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

.AVIATION [28.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL 
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN 
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. /13 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH KS...NORTHWEST OK...AND INTO
SOUTHEAST CO. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OVER 25 MPH. ONLY A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED...MAINLY AT THE KMOB AIRPORT TODAY...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE NOTED OVER THE FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF LOUISIANA THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE RETURN SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 40S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND
IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS... BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TO
BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN NEAR THE COAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT WILL TRANSLATE 
FROM SOUTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA/ARKLAMISS REGION AND NORTHEASTWARD 
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY 
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ALREADY 
FIRING WITHIN THE REGION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW CONTINUED 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING INTO THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COUPLE OF REGIONS OF ENHANCED LIFT FOR MCS 
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWARD 
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE A SEPARATE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF 
LA/MS/AL/AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WITH REGARDS TO LOCAL 
POPS...WE CONTINUED TO TREND COVERAGE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING 
HOURS...WITH POPS TRENDING UPWARD TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL VALUES FROM 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHEST POP 
COVERAGE WAS TRENDED OFFSHORE AND COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE POTENTIAL 
COASTAL MCS...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL TO 
ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION FROM ADDITIONAL CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM 
THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40+ 
KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL OVERALL BE 
LACKING. MLCAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND 
SOUTHWEST AL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL 
TONIGHT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED 
OUT...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES 
TO PASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH/
CATEGORICAL [80+ PERCENT] POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE 
MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY 
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE/LIFT
REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THESE GENERAL LOCATIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED 
LIKELY POPS EAST OF I-65...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN 
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BEGIN DESTABILIZING TO OUR WEST ACROSS 
LA/MS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE THE EVENTUAL FOCUS OF NEW 
CONVECTION THAT WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING/LATE 
FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN 
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...MOSTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE 
MID 60S. WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL LINGERING RAIN AROUND 
FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /21 

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PLAINS SWINGS EAST...ORGANIZING INTO AND UPPER LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
MID MISS RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING DISCRETE CELLS FORMING
WEST OF THE FA...OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...THEN ORGANIZING
INTO A LINE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
AM EXPECTING THIS LINE TO START MOVING OVER THE FA MID TO LATE
EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITING EAST OF THE FA BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY
THERE AFTER. AM EXPECTING ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIP TO BE MOSTLY EAST
OF THE FA BY NOON OR SHORTLY THERE-AFTER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE FA. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE FA
AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY
ELEVATED OVER LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS MEANS MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT FOR THE FA WITH THE PASSING LINE. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND POINTS SOUTH...MORE SURFACE BASED SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ADDED IN TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS. A SECONDARY THREAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND. WITH A
ROUND OF RAN TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT...PONDING OF WATER IS
LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE. AM NOT EXPECTING
THE FLOODING PROBLEM TO BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR A WATCH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH.

AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT SATURDAY...COOLER NORTHERLY AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE
COLD NORTH...SO AM REALLY EXPECTING MORE OF A COOL-OFF...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SPECIFICS. SUDNAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES OFF AND
DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST...MORE ENERGY SWINGS EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OVER THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THE END OF THE
DAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FA ENOUGH FOR
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE FA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT....THE PLAINS SYSTEM GETS
DEFLECTED NORTHEAST...OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGE GETS
PUSHED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...THE SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY...KEEPING
THE FA UNDER MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED. MOE UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ACCORDING
TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE FA
THURS NIGHT...THEN A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NW-ERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN HEADS NORTHEAST...PASSING OVER THE FA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UP UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE 
MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. SEAS STILL LOOK TO 
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS BY TONIGHT AND A SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE FORECAST 
AREA. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS INTO 
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  
STRONGER WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE 
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON SATURDAY... 
WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES 
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO 
DIMINISH. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER THE 
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORMS WILL 
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING 
STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS. 34/21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  72  63  75  47 /  80  90  70  40  05 
PENSACOLA   62  70  63  76  48 /  80  90  70  60  05 
DESTIN      61  69  63  75  51 /  80  90  60  60  05 
EVERGREEN   61  72  62  74  42 /  70  80  70  60  05 
WAYNESBORO  62  75  59  72  44 /  80  80  70  30  00 
CAMDEN      60  72  60  73  43 /  80  80  70  30  05 
CRESTVIEW   61  71  62  76  46 /  70  90  70  60  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... 

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... 

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA 
     ROSA... 

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA 
     ROSA... 

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE 
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE 
     BAY... 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 
     NM... 

&&

$$

34/21/16