922 FXUS64 KMOB 280436 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1135 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 .AVIATION [28.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. /13 && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH KS...NORTHWEST OK...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CO. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. ONLY A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...MAINLY AT THE KMOB AIRPORT TODAY...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE NOTED OVER THE FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF LOUISIANA THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE RETURN SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 40S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS... BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TO BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN NEAR THE COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT WILL TRANSLATE FROM SOUTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA/ARKLAMISS REGION AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ALREADY FIRING WITHIN THE REGION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COUPLE OF REGIONS OF ENHANCED LIFT FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE A SEPARATE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF LA/MS/AL/AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. WITH REGARDS TO LOCAL POPS...WE CONTINUED TO TREND COVERAGE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH POPS TRENDING UPWARD TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHEST POP COVERAGE WAS TRENDED OFFSHORE AND COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE POTENTIAL COASTAL MCS...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION FROM ADDITIONAL CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40+ KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL OVERALL BE LACKING. MLCAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH/ CATEGORICAL [80+ PERCENT] POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE/LIFT REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THESE GENERAL LOCATIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS EAST OF I-65...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BEGIN DESTABILIZING TO OUR WEST ACROSS LA/MS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE THE EVENTUAL FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION THAT WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING/LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...MOSTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S. WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL LINGERING RAIN AROUND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /21 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS SWINGS EAST...ORGANIZING INTO AND UPPER LOW AS IT CROSSES THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING DISCRETE CELLS FORMING WEST OF THE FA...OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...THEN ORGANIZING INTO A LINE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS LINE TO START MOVING OVER THE FA MID TO LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITING EAST OF THE FA BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THERE AFTER. AM EXPECTING ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIP TO BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FA BY NOON OR SHORTLY THERE-AFTER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE FA. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE FA AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY ELEVATED OVER LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS MEANS MAINLY A HAIL THREAT FOR THE FA WITH THE PASSING LINE. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POINTS SOUTH...MORE SURFACE BASED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ADDED IN TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. A SECONDARY THREAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND. WITH A ROUND OF RAN TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT...PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE. AM NOT EXPECTING THE FLOODING PROBLEM TO BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR A WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT SATURDAY...COOLER NORTHERLY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE COLD NORTH...SO AM REALLY EXPECTING MORE OF A COOL-OFF...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SPECIFICS. SUDNAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES OFF AND DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST...MORE ENERGY SWINGS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THE END OF THE DAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FA ENOUGH FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE FA. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT....THE PLAINS SYSTEM GETS DEFLECTED NORTHEAST...OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGE GETS PUSHED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...THE SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY...KEEPING THE FA UNDER MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED. MOE UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE FA THURS NIGHT...THEN A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NW-ERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN HEADS NORTHEAST...PASSING OVER THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UP UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. && .MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. SEAS STILL LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS BY TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS. 34/21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 62 72 63 75 47 / 80 90 70 40 05 PENSACOLA 62 70 63 76 48 / 80 90 70 60 05 DESTIN 61 69 63 75 51 / 80 90 60 60 05 EVERGREEN 61 72 62 74 42 / 70 80 70 60 05 WAYNESBORO 62 75 59 72 44 / 80 80 70 30 00 CAMDEN 60 72 60 73 43 / 80 80 70 30 05 CRESTVIEW 61 71 62 76 46 / 70 90 70 60 05 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA... MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM... && $$ 34/21/16