729 
FXUS63 KICT 201722
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

ONLY CHANGE MADE TO TODAY'S FORECAST WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL KS. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS NOTION.
THIS INCREASED CENTRAL KS FIRE DANGER SOME...BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL/EXTREME LEVELS DUE TO MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.
OTHERWISE...INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF
I-135 THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS WIND AND HUMIDITY VALUES REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. A
MILDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE FLINT HILLS
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ELEVATING THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...THEY SHOULD NOT EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING MAX TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND
70F ALL AREAS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INITIAL COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
BE RATHER MODEST...WITH MAXS STILL A BIT ABOVE LATE MARCH CLIMO.
THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MAXS NOTICEABLY COOLER AND BACK BELOW SEASONAL
CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT A
DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO THE BE
THE COLDEST DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP LOOK FAIRLY LOW...THOUGH FOR CONTINUITY WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND PUSH OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

STOUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KINGMAN-HUTCHINSON-SALINA. THESE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL KS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH SOUTHERLY
ALL AREAS BY MID- EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. THINKING FRONT SHOULD REACH KSLN BY 12-13Z...KHUT BY
14-15Z AND KICT BY 15-16Z.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
COMBINATION WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A FEW HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  41  64  36 /   0   0   0   0 
HUTCHINSON      72  39  62  33 /   0   0   0   0 
NEWTON          70  41  62  33 /   0   0   0   0 
ELDORADO        70  42  64  35 /   0   0   0   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  43  66  37 /   0   0  10  10 
RUSSELL         72  36  59  30 /   0   0   0  10 
GREAT BEND      71  37  60  31 /   0   0   0   0 
SALINA          72  38  62  32 /   0   0   0   0 
MCPHERSON       71  39  62  32 /   0   0   0   0 
COFFEYVILLE     71  45  70  37 /   0   0  10  10 
CHANUTE         69  44  66  36 /   0   0  10  10 
IOLA            69  43  65  36 /   0   0  10   0 
PARSONS-KPPF    70  45  69  36 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$