729 FXUS63 KICT 201722 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1222 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 ...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 ONLY CHANGE MADE TO TODAY'S FORECAST WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL KS. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. THIS INCREASED CENTRAL KS FIRE DANGER SOME...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL/EXTREME LEVELS DUE TO MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. OTHERWISE...INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADK && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS WIND AND HUMIDITY VALUES REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. A MILDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...THEY SHOULD NOT EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING MAX TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F ALL AREAS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INITIAL COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER MODEST...WITH MAXS STILL A BIT ABOVE LATE MARCH CLIMO. THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CONVECTION EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MAXS NOTICEABLY COOLER AND BACK BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. DARMOFAL .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO THE BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOOK FAIRLY LOW...THOUGH FOR CONTINUITY WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND PUSH OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. DARMOFAL && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 STOUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KINGMAN-HUTCHINSON-SALINA. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL KS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH SOUTHERLY ALL AREAS BY MID- EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THINKING FRONT SHOULD REACH KSLN BY 12-13Z...KHUT BY 14-15Z AND KICT BY 15-16Z. ADK && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THE HUMIDITY VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 71 41 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 72 39 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 NEWTON 70 41 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 ELDORADO 70 42 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 71 43 66 37 / 0 0 10 10 RUSSELL 72 36 59 30 / 0 0 0 10 GREAT BEND 71 37 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 SALINA 72 38 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 71 39 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 71 45 70 37 / 0 0 10 10 CHANUTE 69 44 66 36 / 0 0 10 10 IOLA 69 43 65 36 / 0 0 10 0 PARSONS-KPPF 70 45 69 36 / 0 0 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053- 069>072-093>096-098>100. && $$