597 
FXUS64 KMOB 172025
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A POSITIVELY TILTED
MID LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE
LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR
REGION...WITH RADAR ONLY SHOWING A FEW REMNANT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE MID 
LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS 
THE GULF COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN 
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 
THESE FEATURES APPROACH...AND HAVE LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
DEPICTED AREA WIDE THEREAFTER. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GRADUAL EROSION PERHAPS OCCURRING LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE DEEP LAYERS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS NEAR NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
VICINITY OF NE/KS/IA/MO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. /21

TUESDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 
DEEP SURFACE LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS 
OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING FRONT APPEARS TOO LIMITED (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
LESS THAN A HALF INCH). THUS...NO RAIN ANTICIPATED. WITH SURFACE 
HIGH TO THE EAST...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE EVENING 
BECOMES VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES...ENOUGH SURFACE BASED MOISTURE LATE IN THE NIGHT SUPPORTS 
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MOS
VISIBILITY OUTPUT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM LOCAL TIME EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /10

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WITH WEAK FRONT DRAPED 
OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN MID 
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONSIDERING
THIS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY OPAQUENESS. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION RAIN AND WILL LEAVE CHANCES
OF RAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10%. TEMPERATURES TREND TO SEASONABLE OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON WEDNESDAY.

FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. RAINFREE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THEN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT MOVES IN. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS...THEN TREND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR 
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. 
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT 
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TERMINAL 
FORECASTS AT THIS POINT. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE LATE TONIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT DURING THE DAY 
TUESDAY. /21  

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING RETURNING OFFSHORE FLOW TO
THE MARINE AREA IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD OTHERWISE
CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FLOW VEERING MORE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH BY FRIDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  68  46  76  48 /  10  00  05  05  10 
PENSACOLA   43  67  50  73  53 /  20  00  05  05  10 
DESTIN      46  66  52  69  54 /  30  00  05  05  05 
EVERGREEN   39  70  43  77  44 /  20  00  10  10  10 
WAYNESBORO  35  69  42  73  43 /  05  00  10  10  10 
CAMDEN      36  68  43  75  43 /  10  00  10  10  10 
CRESTVIEW   41  70  41  77  44 /  30  00  05  05  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$