597 FXUS64 KMOB 172025 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 325 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014 .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION...WITH RADAR ONLY SHOWING A FEW REMNANT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THESE FEATURES APPROACH...AND HAVE LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEPICTED AREA WIDE THEREAFTER. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GRADUAL EROSION PERHAPS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE DEEP LAYERS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS NEAR NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE VICINITY OF NE/KS/IA/MO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. /21 TUESDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT APPEARS TOO LIMITED (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH). THUS...NO RAIN ANTICIPATED. WITH SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE EVENING BECOMES VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ENOUGH SURFACE BASED MOISTURE LATE IN THE NIGHT SUPPORTS MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MOS VISIBILITY OUTPUT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM LOCAL TIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /10 .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WITH WEAK FRONT DRAPED OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONSIDERING THIS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY OPAQUENESS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION RAIN AND WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF RAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10%. TEMPERATURES TREND TO SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON WEDNESDAY. FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. RAINFREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THEN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT MOVES IN. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...THEN TREND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY/MONDAY AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. 10/29 && .AVIATION [18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. /21 && .MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING RETURNING OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FLOW VEERING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY FRIDAY. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 39 68 46 76 48 / 10 00 05 05 10 PENSACOLA 43 67 50 73 53 / 20 00 05 05 10 DESTIN 46 66 52 69 54 / 30 00 05 05 05 EVERGREEN 39 70 43 77 44 / 20 00 10 10 10 WAYNESBORO 35 69 42 73 43 / 05 00 10 10 10 CAMDEN 36 68 43 75 43 / 10 00 10 10 10 CRESTVIEW 41 70 41 77 44 / 30 00 05 05 05 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$