080 
FXUS64 KMAF 170935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough approaching the Texas Gulf 
Coast, leaving West Texas/SE NM under meridional flow aloft.  Good 
radiational cooling and light winds are allowing overnight mins to 
approach freezing, especially NE.

In the PacNW, a second upper trough is making landfall, and sfc 
analysis shows leeside trough development already preceding it on 
the Front Range.  This is forecast to develop further south today, 
backing sfc flow around to the SW.  This will allow no moisture 
return to the area, w/all models advecting in even drier air than 
present as a result.  Critical fire wx remains a concern, as 
discussed below.  NAM Forecast soundings at KGDP mix out to above 
H7, where 35kt westerly flow is forecast by late afternoon, aided by 
a weak mtn wave.  Thus, a marginal high wind event will be possible 
in the Guadalupes this afternoon.

Otherwise, this downslope flow and sunny skies will result in a 
quick rebound on temps over yesterday, back to above-normal by this 
afternoon.  Tuesday, PacNW trough arrives in the Central Plains, and 
tries to drive a cold front into the area, but this stalls 
diurnally, before bringing in significantly cooler air overnight 
into Wednesday.  Return flow quickly replaces the front Wednesday 
night, w/temps bounce back to normal Thursday, then well-above 
normal Friday, which should be the warmest day this forecast under 
zonal flow aloft, w/a hint of weak ridging.

Friday night, an upper trough is forecast to move into the MS 
Valley, dropping a second cold front into the region and knocking 
temps back to normal thru the weekend.  Models hint at a possible 
dryline event Sunday/Monday, and this looks to be our next shot at 
rain.  We'll keep grids dry for now. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures this afternoon will warm to slightly above normal 
values with breezy southwest winds.  These southwest winds will 
bring in dry air with relative humidity values at or below 15 
percent across a large part of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  
Winds will generally be below 20 mph except across the Guadalupe 
Mountains and Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor where the surface 
pressure gradient will be stronger.  For this reason, have upgraded 
the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe 
Mountains and Culberson County.  Winds will be near 20 mph across 
southeast New Mexico so near critical fire weather conditions will 
be present there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  43  76  37  /   0   0   0   0 
BIG SPRING TX              74  44  75  39  /   0   0   0   0 
CARLSBAD NM                78  42  74  40  /   0   0   0   0 
DRYDEN TX                  75  46  85  46  /   0   0   0   0 
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  49  79  41  /   0   0   0   0 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  44  69  38  /   0   0   0   0 
HOBBS NM                   74  40  70  34  /   0   0   0   0 
MARFA TX                   69  32  72  31  /   0   0   0   0 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  40  77  37  /   0   0   0   0 
ODESSA TX                  76  45  77  37  /   0   0   0   0 
WINK TX                    81  41  80  38  /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this 
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains 
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM 
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... 
     Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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