080 FXUS64 KMAF 170935 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 435 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2014 .DISCUSSION... WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough approaching the Texas Gulf Coast, leaving West Texas/SE NM under meridional flow aloft. Good radiational cooling and light winds are allowing overnight mins to approach freezing, especially NE. In the PacNW, a second upper trough is making landfall, and sfc analysis shows leeside trough development already preceding it on the Front Range. This is forecast to develop further south today, backing sfc flow around to the SW. This will allow no moisture return to the area, w/all models advecting in even drier air than present as a result. Critical fire wx remains a concern, as discussed below. NAM Forecast soundings at KGDP mix out to above H7, where 35kt westerly flow is forecast by late afternoon, aided by a weak mtn wave. Thus, a marginal high wind event will be possible in the Guadalupes this afternoon. Otherwise, this downslope flow and sunny skies will result in a quick rebound on temps over yesterday, back to above-normal by this afternoon. Tuesday, PacNW trough arrives in the Central Plains, and tries to drive a cold front into the area, but this stalls diurnally, before bringing in significantly cooler air overnight into Wednesday. Return flow quickly replaces the front Wednesday night, w/temps bounce back to normal Thursday, then well-above normal Friday, which should be the warmest day this forecast under zonal flow aloft, w/a hint of weak ridging. Friday night, an upper trough is forecast to move into the MS Valley, dropping a second cold front into the region and knocking temps back to normal thru the weekend. Models hint at a possible dryline event Sunday/Monday, and this looks to be our next shot at rain. We'll keep grids dry for now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures this afternoon will warm to slightly above normal values with breezy southwest winds. These southwest winds will bring in dry air with relative humidity values at or below 15 percent across a large part of southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Winds will generally be below 20 mph except across the Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor where the surface pressure gradient will be stronger. For this reason, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and Culberson County. Winds will be near 20 mph across southeast New Mexico so near critical fire weather conditions will be present there. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 76 43 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 BIG SPRING TX 74 44 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 78 42 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 75 46 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 79 49 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 70 44 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 74 40 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 69 32 72 31 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 75 40 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 76 45 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 81 41 80 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ. HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ 80/44