995 
FXUS61 KCLE 120900
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
500 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SNOW STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS 
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR NEW JERSEY BY THIS EVENING. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY 
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD 
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW 
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST SOUTHERN OHIO. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST 
WITH THE PACKAGE INCLUDE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO SNOWFALL TOTALS IN 
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR 
A BLIZZARD WARNING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR 
NOW WITH SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE AND IF 
WE WILL SEE PERSISTANT VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE. SLOWED
DOWN THE START TIME ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GIVEN THE WARM AIR IN PLACE TO START THE MORNING. ALSO CONSIDERED
DOWNGRADING WAYNE AND MORROW COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY GIVEN
MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IN THE WARNING GIVEN
THE WIND AND EXPECTED POOR VISIBILITES.
 
WATER VAPOW IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY FEATURES FOR THIS STORM COMING 
TOGETHER EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH 
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 
30S/LOW 40S EARLY THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION CLOSES IN ON THE 
AREA. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE OBSERVED...THE AREA 
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 
SHORTWAVE AND THE AREA EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHWEST OHIO 
ALONG THE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THE 750-500MB LAYER. 
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ABRUPBTLY OVERCOME AS THE LOW 
SLIDES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE LOW 
LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION. INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER VERY NICELY 
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO 
SNOW OCCURRING AS PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE BY 10-11Z NEAR 
TOLEDO. IT WILL SNOW FAIRLY HEAVY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE 
STARTING TO DECREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOUT A 5-8 INCH SNOWFALL. 

FUTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE 
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPS NORTH INTO THE SYSTEM BETWEEN 14-18Z...JUST 
AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE MAKING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. PREFER A 
SURFACE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NAM...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 
RUC13/00Z UKMET/00Z CMC RUNS. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL 
TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WITH THE 850MB THERMAL 
GRADIENT AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES BETWEEN CLE-YNG AT 15Z. INCREASING 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAKING A 
CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LIKELY FROM FINDLAY NORTHEAST TO 
CLEVELAND AND YOUNGSTOWN BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO SNOW. COULD EVEN 
SEE THIS OCCUR WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION RATES FOR AN HOUR OR MORE AS 
LIFT INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. 
FORTUNATELY GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP AFTER THE LAST 
COUPLE DAYS OF WARM AIR AND SUN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN APPROACHING 
INDIANAPOLIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
EXTENDS ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS 
AND SHIFTS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER MAKING 
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...WE WILL SEE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FILL BACK 
IN WITH A STRONG DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING 
THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONT. SO THE HEAVY 
SNOW WILL MAKE IT...IT WILL JUST TAKE UNTIL ROUGHLY 13Z AT CLE...15Z 
AT MFD...16Z AT GKJ...17Z AT CAK...18Z AT YNG. WITH THAT 
SAID...THINK THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS A LITTLE TOO HIGH 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE LOWERED 
ACCUMULATIONS BY A COUPLE INCHES. 

THE LAKE WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON BOTH SNOWFALL AND WIND ALONG THE 
LAKESHORE AND FOR THE SNOWBELT AREAS...WITH THE HEAVIER LAKE 
ENHANCED SNOW HOLDING ON FOR A LONGER DURATION. ALTHOUGH IT TAKES 
UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE AIRMASS TO COOL ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE 
EFFECT...THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE...STRONG LOW 
LEVEL OMEGA BELOW 850MB...AND LIFT OVER THE CLIMBING TERRAIN WILL 
BOOST SNOW TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE SNOWBELT. WILL CARRY 
BETWEEN 1 AND 5 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT THIS 
EVENING...HIGHEST IN NW PA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 
MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHUTS OFF.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...REACHING NEAR 20 
DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST 
AREAS OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAY NEED A 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY PA. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY 
CONDITIONS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER A 
COLD NIGHT INTO UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 MOST AREAS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  EXPECT 
THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT OVER LAKE ERIE SO 
THERE COULD END UP BEING A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.  
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD FOR NW OH WHERE AMPLE SNOW COVER WILL STILL 
BE AROUND.  IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD 
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTH ACROSS 
THE REGION.  BY MIDDAY SATURDAY MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE GONE.  
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LITTLE ACCUMULATION.  A COLD 
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE 
WEEKEND AND HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ON 
SUNDAY.  AFTER THAT THE MODELS GO OUT OF AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE 
WILL BE LOW FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  FOR NOW WILL TRY 
FOR DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD 
IMPACT THE AREA JUST AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS.  MONDAY WILL BE EVEN 
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH READINGS MAKING A RUN FOR NORMAL ON 
TUESDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER TODAY. ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THIS. HAVE SLOWED THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIP DOWN SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE WEST AND AROUND MIDDAY IN THE FAR SE CORNER
OF THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO ALL
SNOW SHOULD TAKE NO MORE THAN AN HOUR MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AND THEN AS SOON AS THE
SNOW STARTS IFR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE AT TOL...FDY...CLE AND
ERI. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTH AS THE LOW PASSES TO
THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY FOR
NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE BUMPED UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING A COUPLE OF HOURS 
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 
MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE DAY CREW 
MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE GALE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  THE 
FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY SW THURSDAY 
NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGES CROSSES THE LAKE.  THE NEXT THING TO WORRY 
ABOUT WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE W OR NW AT THAT TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING THE FLOW TO 
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.  EXPECT THE ICE FIELDS ON THE LAKE TO 
DO A LOT OF SHIFTING TODAY. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ010>014-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT 
     THIS EVENING FOR OHZ032-033-038-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR OHZ027>030-036-037.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ020>023-031.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING 
     FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA