995 FXUS61 KCLE 120900 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 500 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SNOW STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR NEW JERSEY BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST SOUTHERN OHIO. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE PACKAGE INCLUDE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE AND IF WE WILL SEE PERSISTANT VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE. SLOWED DOWN THE START TIME ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES GIVEN THE WARM AIR IN PLACE TO START THE MORNING. ALSO CONSIDERED DOWNGRADING WAYNE AND MORROW COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY GIVEN MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IN THE WARNING GIVEN THE WIND AND EXPECTED POOR VISIBILITES. WATER VAPOW IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY FEATURES FOR THIS STORM COMING TOGETHER EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S EARLY THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION CLOSES IN ON THE AREA. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE OBSERVED...THE AREA SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THE AREA EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHWEST OHIO ALONG THE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THE 750-500MB LAYER. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ABRUPBTLY OVERCOME AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION. INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER VERY NICELY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING AS PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE BY 10-11Z NEAR TOLEDO. IT WILL SNOW FAIRLY HEAVY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOUT A 5-8 INCH SNOWFALL. FUTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPS NORTH INTO THE SYSTEM BETWEEN 14-18Z...JUST AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE MAKING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. PREFER A SURFACE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NAM...MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC13/00Z UKMET/00Z CMC RUNS. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES BETWEEN CLE-YNG AT 15Z. INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAKING A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LIKELY FROM FINDLAY NORTHEAST TO CLEVELAND AND YOUNGSTOWN BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO SNOW. COULD EVEN SEE THIS OCCUR WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION RATES FOR AN HOUR OR MORE AS LIFT INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. FORTUNATELY GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP AFTER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF WARM AIR AND SUN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN APPROACHING INDIANAPOLIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER MAKING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...WE WILL SEE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FILL BACK IN WITH A STRONG DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONT. SO THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE IT...IT WILL JUST TAKE UNTIL ROUGHLY 13Z AT CLE...15Z AT MFD...16Z AT GKJ...17Z AT CAK...18Z AT YNG. WITH THAT SAID...THINK THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS A LITTLE TOO HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMULATIONS BY A COUPLE INCHES. THE LAKE WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON BOTH SNOWFALL AND WIND ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND FOR THE SNOWBELT AREAS...WITH THE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW HOLDING ON FOR A LONGER DURATION. ALTHOUGH IT TAKES UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE AIRMASS TO COOL ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT...THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE...STRONG LOW LEVEL OMEGA BELOW 850MB...AND LIFT OVER THE CLIMBING TERRAIN WILL BOOST SNOW TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE SNOWBELT. WILL CARRY BETWEEN 1 AND 5 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING...HIGHEST IN NW PA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHUTS OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...REACHING NEAR 20 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY PA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER A COLD NIGHT INTO UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT OVER LAKE ERIE SO THERE COULD END UP BEING A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD FOR NW OH WHERE AMPLE SNOW COVER WILL STILL BE AROUND. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE GONE. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LITTLE ACCUMULATION. A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT THE MODELS GO OUT OF AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA JUST AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH READINGS MAKING A RUN FOR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TODAY. ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THIS. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP DOWN SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE WEST AND AROUND MIDDAY IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO ALL SNOW SHOULD TAKE NO MORE THAN AN HOUR MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AND THEN AS SOON AS THE SNOW STARTS IFR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE AT TOL...FDY...CLE AND ERI. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTH AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. .OUTLOOK...MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY FOR NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... HAVE BUMPED UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING A COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY CREW MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE GALE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY SW THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGES CROSSES THE LAKE. THE NEXT THING TO WORRY ABOUT WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE W OR NW AT THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING THE FLOW TO TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT THE ICE FIELDS ON THE LAKE TO DO A LOT OF SHIFTING TODAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ010>014-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ032-033-038-047. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003- 006>009-017>019. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ027>030-036-037. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ020>023-031. PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA