755 
FXUS65 KPSR 032100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION 
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE 
HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM 
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY 
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE HAS LED TO MARKED 
CLEARING. IR IMAGERY AT 2 PM SHOWED GENLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SW AND 
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD STARTING TO SPREAD INTO OUR 
SERN CA ZONES. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR UPPER 
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL SEE THE LOWER DESERTS 
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER 
DIRTY RIDGE AS VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLEED 
THRU THE RIDGE...LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY 
NIGHTS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.

THE ONLY POSSIBLE RAIN MAKER FOR THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE A FAST 
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT 
BASIN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE 
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND HOW 
FAR SOUTH AND WEST IT WILL END UP. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN SEEMS TO 
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN 
ARIZONA...BUT EITHER WAY THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL REALLY HAMPER ANY 
RAIN POTENTIAL. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONGER
EUROPEAN. STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING 
VERY DRY AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.     

&&

.AVIATION... 
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING..THOUGH 
PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL 
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL 
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS...AND IN SOME CASES MAY BECOME VARIABLE OR NEARLY 
CALM FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD 
(HIGHS IN THE 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS)...WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY 
WEATHER. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY MAY 
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE 
STATE...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
ARIZONA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE FROM RECENT 
RAINFALL WILL STEADILY EVAPORATE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES 
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS...FOLLOWED BY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT 
RECOVERY. 

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/KUHLMAN
AVIATION....MO/MM
FIRE WEATHER...MO