755 FXUS65 KPSR 032100 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 200 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE HAS LED TO MARKED CLEARING. IR IMAGERY AT 2 PM SHOWED GENLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD STARTING TO SPREAD INTO OUR SERN CA ZONES. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL SEE THE LOWER DESERTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DIRTY RIDGE AS VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLEED THRU THE RIDGE...LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE RAIN MAKER FOR THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST IT WILL END UP. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT EITHER WAY THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL REALLY HAMPER ANY RAIN POTENTIAL. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONGER EUROPEAN. STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING VERY DRY AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING..THOUGH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS...AND IN SOME CASES MAY BECOME VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM FOR PROLONGED PERIODS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD (HIGHS IN THE 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS)...WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL STEADILY EVAPORATE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS...FOLLOWED BY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...CB/KUHLMAN AVIATION....MO/MM FIRE WEATHER...MO