146 
FXUS61 KRLX 280521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1221 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. POTENT SYSTEM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINTRY THREAT NORTHWEST AND
RAINFALL THREAT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1220 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THE
HEELS OF A EXITING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS
HAVE ALLOWED BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENTS WEAKEN
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL
ALLOW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTERWARDS WITH
CONTINUING DRYING TREND...PULLED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. A SHORTWAVE
MAKES AN APPROACH LATE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPS ...OVERALL WENT ON
THE COOL SIDE OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AND 
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE 
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION.  THIS SHOULD BE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO 
THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.  

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM LIKELY BEGINNING 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION 
LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING HAS BEEN A BIT IFFY BETWEEN 
MODELS SO TRIED TO BLEND THE TIMING TO COME UP WITH A REASONABLE 
ESTIMATE FOR PRECIP AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTERESTING STORM ACROSS THE REGION FOR 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOULD BE A BIG GRADIENT OF WEATHER ACROSS 
THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...BUT SMALL 
DIFFERENCES MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHAT HAPPENS. WILL CONTINUE 
WITH A TYPICAL SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHICH CONSISTS OF A WARM 
WEDGE IN THE SOUTH AND UP THROUGH THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH A BAND 
OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTHEAST KY THROUGH NORTHERN 
WV...AND SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IN OHIO HAVING MAJOR 
PROBLEMS IS GROWING...WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN 
WEST VIRGINIA. FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. 

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE NAEFS MEAN AND THE 
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER WINTER STORM MOVING 
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS 
HOWEVER ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WITH SOME MODELS STAYING SOUTH 
OF THE AREA AND OTHERS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE 
OF THE STORM. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
TO MEANDER IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH TO START...TURNING MORE E/SE LATER TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 02/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/LS
NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ