146 FXUS61 KRLX 280521 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1221 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TROUGH ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. POTENT SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINTRY THREAT NORTHWEST AND RAINFALL THREAT SOUTHEAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1220 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THE HEELS OF A EXITING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE ALLOWED BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENTS WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL ALLOW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTERWARDS WITH CONTINUING DRYING TREND...PULLED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. A SHORTWAVE MAKES AN APPROACH LATE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPS ...OVERALL WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD BE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM LIKELY BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING HAS BEEN A BIT IFFY BETWEEN MODELS SO TRIED TO BLEND THE TIMING TO COME UP WITH A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR PRECIP AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTERESTING STORM ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOULD BE A BIG GRADIENT OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...BUT SMALL DIFFERENCES MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHAT HAPPENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TYPICAL SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHICH CONSISTS OF A WARM WEDGE IN THE SOUTH AND UP THROUGH THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH A BAND OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTHEAST KY THROUGH NORTHERN WV...AND SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IN OHIO HAVING MAJOR PROBLEMS IS GROWING...WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN WEST VIRGINIA. FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE NAEFS MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS HOWEVER ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WITH SOME MODELS STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OTHERS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM. STAY TUNED... && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MEANDER IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO START...TURNING MORE E/SE LATER TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 02/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/LS NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ