283 
FXUS63 KFGF 240535
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO LATE EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE FOR EARLIER DECISION OF DELAYING WIND CHILL HEADLINES UNTIL
12 AM CST. DVL BASIN AREA NOW WELL WITHIN CRITERIA...WITH THE
NORTHERN VALLEY NEARING 25 BELOW. LAKE OF THE WOODS STILL QUITE
WARM BUT CLOUD COVER OVER AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST IN THE 06Z TO
08Z TIMEFRAME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS INHERITED WIND CHILL HEADLINES.
WARMEST TEMPS AS OF RIGHT NOW ARE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AND
MODELS SHOWING RANSOM/SARGENT HAVING LIGHTEST WINDS TONIGHT AS
WELL (ALREADY AROUND 5KTS). WILL REMOVE THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM
ADVISORY AS WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS NEARING CRITERIA WHERE
BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL GOING OVER NORTHEASTERN ND. EXPECT APPARENT
TEMPS IN THIS AREA TO WARM UP A BIT AS WINDS DIE DOWN...THEN BEGIN
FALLING AGAIN IN THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH THE REST OF
THE CWA. DELAYED COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF NORTHEASTER ND/NORTHERN RRV
UNTIL 12 AM BUT 3 AM IS THE MORE LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL MATCH UP NICELY WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THIS FCST.

FOR TOMORROW...THE LATEST NAM AND RUC CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER NOON TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RUC
HAVING DRIER QPFS. LOOKS LIKE MOST SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE HWY
200 CORRIDOR OR PERHAPS EVEN THE I 94 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO POPS MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CWA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
BEGIN TO FALL YET HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 BELOW
TO 35 BELOW RANGE. NO PLANNED CHANGES TO HEADLINES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA AS CLOUD DECK AROUND JAMES BAY LOW
CONTINUES TO PIVOT TO THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MN. CURRENT TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS RIDGE ARE IN THE 
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH...BUT
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO. AIR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW...SO WILL
ISSUE A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 04 UTC TONIGHT UNTIL 16
UTC MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS SD. NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS SNOW SHIELD MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...
SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10
CORRIDOR. WAS ABLE TO REMOVE POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH SLOWER
FORWARD PROGRESSION IN THE MODELS. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL OTHER AREAS DRY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND WIND AROUND 10 MPH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

MORE OF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 1035 TO 1040 HPA
SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AROUND THE ZERO MARK WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
STREAM OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD POOL OF AIR SITTING 
OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO HUDSON BAY REGION DOWN INTO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SASK. THUS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD EXPECTING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT DRY CONDITIONS. MAY BE A LITTLE
LOW ON THURSDAY FEATURING RIDICULOUSLY COLD MAX TEMPS BUT LET RIDE
FOR NOW. ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO WEEKEND TEMPS...IF ECMWF IS
CORRECT IT WILL BE COLDER THOUGH AS IT ROTATES COLD POOL FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH WINNIPEG INTO MINNESOTA. FORECAST STILL
BARREN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SOUTH
TRACKING SYSTEM OFFERING SCANT POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA THROUGH 06Z TAF PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
FAR. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. DID MENTION LIGHT SNOW AFT 22Z AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW VFR CIGS AT DVL AND GFK BUT REMOVED
CIGS FROM TVF AND BJI AS SWATH OF CLOUDS SHOULD DROP SOUTH AS THEY
DRIFT EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ038-039-053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-
     007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/WJB
AVIATION...SPEICHER