283 FXUS63 KFGF 240535 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 NO CHANGES PLANNED TO LATE EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR EARLIER DECISION OF DELAYING WIND CHILL HEADLINES UNTIL 12 AM CST. DVL BASIN AREA NOW WELL WITHIN CRITERIA...WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY NEARING 25 BELOW. LAKE OF THE WOODS STILL QUITE WARM BUT CLOUD COVER OVER AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST IN THE 06Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS INHERITED WIND CHILL HEADLINES. WARMEST TEMPS AS OF RIGHT NOW ARE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AND MODELS SHOWING RANSOM/SARGENT HAVING LIGHTEST WINDS TONIGHT AS WELL (ALREADY AROUND 5KTS). WILL REMOVE THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM ADVISORY AS WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS NEARING CRITERIA WHERE BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL GOING OVER NORTHEASTERN ND. EXPECT APPARENT TEMPS IN THIS AREA TO WARM UP A BIT AS WINDS DIE DOWN...THEN BEGIN FALLING AGAIN IN THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA. DELAYED COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF NORTHEASTER ND/NORTHERN RRV UNTIL 12 AM BUT 3 AM IS THE MORE LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL MATCH UP NICELY WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THIS FCST. FOR TOMORROW...THE LATEST NAM AND RUC CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER NOON TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RUC HAVING DRIER QPFS. LOOKS LIKE MOST SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE HWY 200 CORRIDOR OR PERHAPS EVEN THE I 94 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO POPS MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CWA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL YET HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW RANGE. NO PLANNED CHANGES TO HEADLINES TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION. FOR TONIGHT...SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA AS CLOUD DECK AROUND JAMES BAY LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT TO THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CURRENT TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS RIDGE ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH...BUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO. AIR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW...SO WILL ISSUE A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 04 UTC TONIGHT UNTIL 16 UTC MONDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS SD. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW SHIELD MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA... SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR. WAS ABLE TO REMOVE POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESSION IN THE MODELS. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL...AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL OTHER AREAS DRY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND WIND AROUND 10 MPH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 MORE OF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 1035 TO 1040 HPA SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AROUND THE ZERO MARK WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STREAM OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLD POOL OF AIR SITTING OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO HUDSON BAY REGION DOWN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SASK. THUS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD EXPECTING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT DRY CONDITIONS. MAY BE A LITTLE LOW ON THURSDAY FEATURING RIDICULOUSLY COLD MAX TEMPS BUT LET RIDE FOR NOW. ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO WEEKEND TEMPS...IF ECMWF IS CORRECT IT WILL BE COLDER THOUGH AS IT ROTATES COLD POOL FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH WINNIPEG INTO MINNESOTA. FORECAST STILL BARREN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SOUTH TRACKING SYSTEM OFFERING SCANT POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA THROUGH 06Z TAF PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. DID MENTION LIGHT SNOW AFT 22Z AS MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 CORRIDOR. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW VFR CIGS AT DVL AND GFK BUT REMOVED CIGS FROM TVF AND BJI AS SWATH OF CLOUDS SHOULD DROP SOUTH AS THEY DRIFT EAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ038-039-053. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006- 008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004- 007. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/WJB AVIATION...SPEICHER