242 
FXUS63 KEAX 160936
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014

Stratus deck building southward will likely make it as far south as
the Missouri River this morning, possibly a bit further south than
that, with the western edge close to St. Joseph and Kansas City. This
stratus deck may gradually scatter out later this afternoon but
will likely keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than previously
forecast. Even areas west of this stratus deck will likely see a
thick mid-layer deck for much of the day, so temperatures were
lowered several degrees across the board with highs generally in the
lower to middle 30s.

Warm air advection will get underway late tonight and will be
accompanied by a wave of light rain and drizzle developing around
midnight and lasting through Monday morning. This rain will
initially encounter sub-freezing temperatures across much of northern
Missouri possibly as far south as I-70. These temperatures will
gradually rise above freezing through the overnight and early
morning hours so that the entire region rises above freezing by mid
to late Monday morning. However this will still provide a couple of
hours of freezing rain for areas near and slightly north of the
Missouri River, and possibly 6 hours or more of freezing rain for far
northern MO. Model QPF amounts have been fairly consistent with this
system with anywhere from 0.1" to 0.25" liquid- equivalent falling
across north central and northeast Missouri, the higher amounts being
around the Kirksville area and points north and east. This region
will also be the last to rise above freezing Monday morning and
appears likely to receive a tenth or two of ice accumulation through
this time. There could also be a few periods of sleet or snow across
far northern Missouri Monday morning but any accumulations should be
very minor.

Given the likelihood of hazardous ice accumulations tonight and
Monday, a freezing rain advisory has been issued for areas along and
northeast of a Bethany to Macon line (opted for freezing rain advy vs
winter weather advy since any sleet or snow should be of minimal
impact). These areas stand the highest chance of seeing ice
accumulations of a tenth of an inch or more. However, periods of
freezing rain are likely much further south than this late tonight,
possibly as far south as Kansas City and Sedalia for a brief period
around midnight before temperatures rise above freezing. Therefore
the advisory stands a good chance of being expanded further south and
west during the day once we have a better handle on how far south the
freezing line will be once the rain begins. For now a conservative
approach was taken on the advisory to give an extra heads up to areas
which will see the highest ice accumulations and for a longer period
of time.

The warm air advection that will drive tonight's precipitation event
will also allow temperatures to rise into the 40s across the entire
area by Monday afternoon. This warmup will continue into Tuesday with
highs ranging from the upper 40s over northern MO to the upper 50s
near and south of I-70. Similar temperatures are expected on
Wednesday. These warm temperatures will set the stage for rain and a
few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday when a
surface low will track across Kansas and Missouri. Instability will
be weak and of an elevated nature so that any thunderstorms should be
isolated and fairly weak.

A lack of strong meridional upper flow behind Wednesday night's
system will maintain above-average temperatures for Thursday and
Friday. Another system will develop somewhere across the Central or
Northern Plains late in the week as an upper-level trough digs into
the central U.S. There has been quite a bit of wavering with the exact
track of this system with a few model runs suggesting a further south
track that would give us a chance of snow Friday night and Saturday.
Such a solution can't be ruled out but trends suggest a storm track
north of our area is more likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014

Tricky aviation forecast heading into daybreak Sunday as stratus
continue to drop southward out of Iowa and Nebraska this morning.
Models generally having a hard time with this low-level moisture, but
RAP and HRRR have captured general trends well this evening. That
said, steering winds in the cloud layer continue to support a south
to southeast trajectory through daybreak which should bring the
stratus into KSTJ and perhaps as far south as the KC terminals.
Current ceilings right around 1500-2000 Ft AGL, and not expecting any
further lowering. 

With winds remaining rather light out of the north, this stratus
could hang out into mid-morning but confidence on this a
significantly lower. Winds will begin to turn to the southeast by
midday with increasing mid-upr clouds through the evening hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to Noon CST 
     Monday FOR MOZ003-005>008-015>017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Dux