242 FXUS63 KEAX 160936 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 336 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014 Stratus deck building southward will likely make it as far south as the Missouri River this morning, possibly a bit further south than that, with the western edge close to St. Joseph and Kansas City. This stratus deck may gradually scatter out later this afternoon but will likely keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than previously forecast. Even areas west of this stratus deck will likely see a thick mid-layer deck for much of the day, so temperatures were lowered several degrees across the board with highs generally in the lower to middle 30s. Warm air advection will get underway late tonight and will be accompanied by a wave of light rain and drizzle developing around midnight and lasting through Monday morning. This rain will initially encounter sub-freezing temperatures across much of northern Missouri possibly as far south as I-70. These temperatures will gradually rise above freezing through the overnight and early morning hours so that the entire region rises above freezing by mid to late Monday morning. However this will still provide a couple of hours of freezing rain for areas near and slightly north of the Missouri River, and possibly 6 hours or more of freezing rain for far northern MO. Model QPF amounts have been fairly consistent with this system with anywhere from 0.1" to 0.25" liquid- equivalent falling across north central and northeast Missouri, the higher amounts being around the Kirksville area and points north and east. This region will also be the last to rise above freezing Monday morning and appears likely to receive a tenth or two of ice accumulation through this time. There could also be a few periods of sleet or snow across far northern Missouri Monday morning but any accumulations should be very minor. Given the likelihood of hazardous ice accumulations tonight and Monday, a freezing rain advisory has been issued for areas along and northeast of a Bethany to Macon line (opted for freezing rain advy vs winter weather advy since any sleet or snow should be of minimal impact). These areas stand the highest chance of seeing ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch or more. However, periods of freezing rain are likely much further south than this late tonight, possibly as far south as Kansas City and Sedalia for a brief period around midnight before temperatures rise above freezing. Therefore the advisory stands a good chance of being expanded further south and west during the day once we have a better handle on how far south the freezing line will be once the rain begins. For now a conservative approach was taken on the advisory to give an extra heads up to areas which will see the highest ice accumulations and for a longer period of time. The warm air advection that will drive tonight's precipitation event will also allow temperatures to rise into the 40s across the entire area by Monday afternoon. This warmup will continue into Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 40s over northern MO to the upper 50s near and south of I-70. Similar temperatures are expected on Wednesday. These warm temperatures will set the stage for rain and a few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday when a surface low will track across Kansas and Missouri. Instability will be weak and of an elevated nature so that any thunderstorms should be isolated and fairly weak. A lack of strong meridional upper flow behind Wednesday night's system will maintain above-average temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Another system will develop somewhere across the Central or Northern Plains late in the week as an upper-level trough digs into the central U.S. There has been quite a bit of wavering with the exact track of this system with a few model runs suggesting a further south track that would give us a chance of snow Friday night and Saturday. Such a solution can't be ruled out but trends suggest a storm track north of our area is more likely. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 Tricky aviation forecast heading into daybreak Sunday as stratus continue to drop southward out of Iowa and Nebraska this morning. Models generally having a hard time with this low-level moisture, but RAP and HRRR have captured general trends well this evening. That said, steering winds in the cloud layer continue to support a south to southeast trajectory through daybreak which should bring the stratus into KSTJ and perhaps as far south as the KC terminals. Current ceilings right around 1500-2000 Ft AGL, and not expecting any further lowering. With winds remaining rather light out of the north, this stratus could hang out into mid-morning but confidence on this a significantly lower. Winds will begin to turn to the southeast by midday with increasing mid-upr clouds through the evening hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to Noon CST Monday FOR MOZ003-005>008-015>017-024-025. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...Dux