174 
FXUS62 KILM 070848
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
348 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST DURING
SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND SOGGY CONDITIONS FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A SWIFT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LAST NIGHT
BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH CHANGED OVER
TO SLEET AND SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN BRIEF BUT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PARTIALLY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION MELTED FAST ON THE RELATIVELY MILDER SURFACES
BUT AREAS IN COLUMBUS AND PENDER COUNTIES ALONG A WHITEVILLE TO
BURGAW TO MAPLE HILL CORRIDOR...MAY HAVE BRIEFLY RECEIVED A HALF
INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE MELTING ENSUED.

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS OUTTA HERE AND OFFSHORE NOW...WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EXPECTED OVERHEAD MUCH OF THE DAY.
BELOW THE SUBSIDENT LAYER...RH DEPICTIONS IN TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW
H8 CLOUDS MAY SPILL ENE OR FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
CONTENT REMAINS LOCALLY HIGH BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET WITH WEAK LIFT
FROM OVER-RUNNING IN THIS LAYER. AS A RESULT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NOT ADVERTISE COMPLETE CLEARING TODAY.
THIS COUPLED WITH COLD ADVECTION COOLING SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 FAHRENHEIT THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT-WAVE ENERGY QUICKLY EMERGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY ANY PCPN WILL FAVOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT PATCHY -RA SHOULD BE OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DEVELOPS ALONG A REMNANT FRONT OFFSHORE THE FL COAST...AND RACES UP 
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT 
MOVES NORTHEAST...AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY. THERE IS 
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE 
COAST...WHERE PRECIP DURATION IS LONGER AND PWATS ARE HIGHER. 
PERIODS OF MDT RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE HELPS 
PROMOTE LIFT IN A SATURATED COLUMN. QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES 
REMAINS REASONABLE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM 
EAST TO WEST...AND I-95 COUNTIES MAY SEE ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL. STILL...WILL RAMP POP TO CATEGORICAL CWA-WIDE EARLY 
SATURDAY...BEFORE LOW DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND POP FALLS 
TO SILENT SAT NIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTLE AIR-MASS 
MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL 
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY...SO SUNDAY WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THANKS 
TO CLOUDS...RAIN...AND NORTH WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE ONLY TO 
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 50. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES 
SANDWICHED IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 
60...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE COUNTIES OF SC. LOWS 
BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 
THE WARMER OF THE TWO. WILL BUMP MINS SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES TO 
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A BUSY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEEK ON TAP AS A 
COMPLEX SERIES OF SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY...BUT WILL BE 
MOSTLY DRY AS LIMITED MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF IT. MONDAY MAY 
END UP BEING THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK...BUT AS WEDGE HIGH 
PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF LATE MONDAY AND SW FLOW PERSISTS 
ALOFT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVE AND BY MONDAY 
NIGHT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP. STILL...THE WETTER PERIOD 
BEGINS TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THESE WILL CREATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY 
HAVE ANOTHER MIXED-PRECIP OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY 
AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH A WARM LAYER. WILL 
NOT INTRODUCE ANY FROZEN PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT DO WANT 
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY AS IT HAS NOW SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS 
FOR MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS...AND WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL OF THESE EVENTS 
THIS WINTER. 

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE 
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE 
WED INTO THU. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LOW 
PRESSURE...BUT WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE BASED OFF 
PERSISTENCE...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN INTO LATE WEEK...SOME OF WHICH 
MAY BE HEAVY AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS TO THE 
WEST...FUNNELING COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...COLDEST EARLY IN THE 
WEEK WITH SLOW WARMING OCCURRING BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO/KLBT AND WILL END AT THE 
COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 07Z AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. 
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF 
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. IF ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP IT 
WILL BE 08Z-12Z DUE TO BR WHEN WINDS ARE LIGHTEST AND WHEN THERE IS 
LESS CLOUDINESS. 

AFTER SUNRISE SKIES WILL BE SCT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS IN THE MORNING 
BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE 
INCREASE WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AT KCRE/KMYR TOWARDS 
THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.  

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ON SATURDAY. 
MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE WINDS TODAY MAY BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT EXITS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT NO
ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS APPEAR TO BE NEEDED. NE GUSTS TO
20 KT ARE LIKELY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BRIEFLY REINFORCED OVER
THE WATERS. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT LATE TONIGHT LIGHT RAIN
MAY REDUCE LOCAL VISIBILITIES TO 3NM OR LESS AFTER 400 AM AND INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXPECTED BUT UP TO 5 FT
AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF NE WIND-
WAVES IN 4-5 SECOND WAVE INTERVALS...AND AND 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY
9-10 SECONDS. WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIGID...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT THERMAL-WEAR CAN SAVE A
LIFE IN THE EVENT OF AN OVER-BOARD SITUATION.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS 
SATURDAY...CAUSING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
TO ITS WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST 
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY...BECOMING RATHER 
DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL FALL TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND BECOME 
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH W/SW WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT 
SUNDAY IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE VERY 
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AT 10-15 KTS SUNDAY 
NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE WKND WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF 
SATURDAY...WITH 3-5 FT WAVES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS 
THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT EASES...SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT 
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST AT THESE AMPLITUDES ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS VERY 
EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF 
ALONG THE COAST THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES WINDS WHICH WILL VEER FROM 
NW TO NE THROUGH MONDAY....BEFORE PERSISTING AT THIS DIRECTION AND 
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAVE AMPLITUDES 
WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE 
PROLONGED NE FETCH DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 2-3 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL 
RISE STEADILY...BECOMING 4-6 FT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW