174 FXUS62 KILM 070848 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 348 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST DURING SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND SOGGY CONDITIONS FOR A CONSIDERABLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A SWIFT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LAST NIGHT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH CHANGED OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN BRIEF BUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PARTIALLY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MELTED FAST ON THE RELATIVELY MILDER SURFACES BUT AREAS IN COLUMBUS AND PENDER COUNTIES ALONG A WHITEVILLE TO BURGAW TO MAPLE HILL CORRIDOR...MAY HAVE BRIEFLY RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE MELTING ENSUED. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS OUTTA HERE AND OFFSHORE NOW...WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EXPECTED OVERHEAD MUCH OF THE DAY. BELOW THE SUBSIDENT LAYER...RH DEPICTIONS IN TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW H8 CLOUDS MAY SPILL ENE OR FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS LOCALLY HIGH BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET WITH WEAK LIFT FROM OVER-RUNNING IN THIS LAYER. AS A RESULT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NOT ADVERTISE COMPLETE CLEARING TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH COLD ADVECTION COOLING SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 FAHRENHEIT THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY QUICKLY EMERGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY ANY PCPN WILL FAVOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT PATCHY -RA SHOULD BE OVER-SPREADING THE FORECAST AREA NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A REMNANT FRONT OFFSHORE THE FL COAST...AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE COAST...WHERE PRECIP DURATION IS LONGER AND PWATS ARE HIGHER. PERIODS OF MDT RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE HELPS PROMOTE LIFT IN A SATURATED COLUMN. QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES REMAINS REASONABLE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST...AND I-95 COUNTIES MAY SEE ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL. STILL...WILL RAMP POP TO CATEGORICAL CWA-WIDE EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE LOW DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND POP FALLS TO SILENT SAT NIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTLE AIR-MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY...SO SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THANKS TO CLOUDS...RAIN...AND NORTH WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE ONLY TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 50. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES SANDWICHED IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 60...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE COUNTIES OF SC. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO. WILL BUMP MINS SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER FROPA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A BUSY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEEK ON TAP AS A COMPLEX SERIES OF SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY...BUT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS LIMITED MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF IT. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK...BUT AS WEDGE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF LATE MONDAY AND SW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVE AND BY MONDAY NIGHT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP. STILL...THE WETTER PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THESE WILL CREATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER MIXED-PRECIP OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH A WARM LAYER. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FROZEN PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT DO WANT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY AS IT HAS NOW SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS...AND WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL OF THESE EVENTS THIS WINTER. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WED INTO THU. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE BASED OFF PERSISTENCE...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN INTO LATE WEEK...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS TO THE WEST...FUNNELING COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...COLDEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SLOW WARMING OCCURRING BY LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO/KLBT AND WILL END AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 07Z AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. IF ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP IT WILL BE 08Z-12Z DUE TO BR WHEN WINDS ARE LIGHTEST AND WHEN THERE IS LESS CLOUDINESS. AFTER SUNRISE SKIES WILL BE SCT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AT KCRE/KMYR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ON SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE WINDS TODAY MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT EXITS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS APPEAR TO BE NEEDED. NE GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BRIEFLY REINFORCED OVER THE WATERS. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT LATE TONIGHT LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE LOCAL VISIBILITIES TO 3NM OR LESS AFTER 400 AM AND INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXPECTED BUT UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF NE WIND- WAVES IN 4-5 SECOND WAVE INTERVALS...AND AND 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIGID...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT THERMAL-WEAR CAN SAVE A LIFE IN THE EVENT OF AN OVER-BOARD SITUATION. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS SATURDAY...CAUSING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO ITS WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY...BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL FALL TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH W/SW WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT SUNDAY IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AT 10-15 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE WKND WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...WITH 3-5 FT WAVES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT EASES...SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST AT THESE AMPLITUDES ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS VERY EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF ALONG THE COAST THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES WINDS WHICH WILL VEER FROM NW TO NE THROUGH MONDAY....BEFORE PERSISTING AT THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAVE AMPLITUDES WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE PROLONGED NE FETCH DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 2-3 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RISE STEADILY...BECOMING 4-6 FT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MJC MARINE...MJC/JDW