051 
FXUS62 KMHX 292254
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
554 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY THEN MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM SUNDAY...PRECIP AND STRONGEST SRLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
OFFSHORE. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND DROPPED WIND ADVRY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL GRAD FILTER IN WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING NW IN
WAKE OF FRONT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 COOLER INLAND SPOTS
TO UPR 40S/AROUND 50 BEACHES. WL CONT HIGH SURF ADVRY S OF HAT A
CPL MORE HOURS AS LARGE SEAS CONT OVER THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THICKENING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK PRECIP WILL BE IN LIQUID
FORM...THOUGH THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA TUE INTO WED. LOW LVL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TUE AND WED. LATE WEEK STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH
CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH 12Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF IN
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT INTO THU...ONE OFF THE SE COAST
AND ONE OVER THE OH VALLEY. LOWS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE THU.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US THU NIGHT INTO FRI
AS SFC LOW MOVES UP THE NE COAST. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
POP/WX FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ALTHOUGH
NOW ECMWF COMING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MORE
SIMILAR TO GFS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO
THU. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH EACH RUN. NO SIG ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...MOVING OFFSHORE SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT
WITH HIGHS 45-50 DEG...THEN WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES SUN AS
HEIGHTS BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 550 PM SUN...PRECIP HAS ENDED AND CLOUDS WILL GRAD CLEAR
NEXT CPL HRS WITH VFR DOMINATING OVERNIGHT THRU MON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY IN WAKE OF FRONT AND SHLD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT REST OF THE NIGHT INTO MON. 

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ESP FOR PGV/ISO.
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH PRED
VFR. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST AND OH VALLEY WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT CROSSES. CONT
GALE A BIT LONGER CNTRL WTRS BUT HAVE DROPPED GALE AND GONE WITH
SCA REST OF WTRS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
WITH SEAS GRAD SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. MONDAY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS DROPPING
TO 2 TO 4 FT...POSS STILL SOME 5 FOOTERS OVER OUTER CNTRL WTRS. 

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 3 PM SUN...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS N/NW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND WED. EXPECT N/NW WINDS 15KT
OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER LATE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING...ONE OFF THE SE
COAST AND ONE OVER THE OH VALLEY...AND MERGING INTO ONE OFF THE
EAST COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WILL MAINTAIN SW/W FLOW LESS THAN
15KT THU THEN INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE NW THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF 
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/JME/CQD