051 FXUS62 KMHX 292254 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 554 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY THEN MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 550 PM SUNDAY...PRECIP AND STRONGEST SRLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND DROPPED WIND ADVRY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRAD FILTER IN WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING NW IN WAKE OF FRONT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 40S/AROUND 50 BEACHES. WL CONT HIGH SURF ADVRY S OF HAT A CPL MORE HOURS AS LARGE SEAS CONT OVER THE WATER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THICKENING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK PRECIP WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUE INTO WED. LOW LVL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S TUE AND WED. LATE WEEK STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH 12Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT INTO THU...ONE OFF THE SE COAST AND ONE OVER THE OH VALLEY. LOWS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE THU. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SFC LOW MOVES UP THE NE COAST. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS POP/WX FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ALTHOUGH NOW ECMWF COMING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MORE SIMILAR TO GFS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH EACH RUN. NO SIG ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFFSHORE SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS 45-50 DEG...THEN WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 550 PM SUN...PRECIP HAS ENDED AND CLOUDS WILL GRAD CLEAR NEXT CPL HRS WITH VFR DOMINATING OVERNIGHT THRU MON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY IN WAKE OF FRONT AND SHLD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT REST OF THE NIGHT INTO MON. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUN...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ESP FOR PGV/ISO. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH PRED VFR. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST AND OH VALLEY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 550 PM SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT CROSSES. CONT GALE A BIT LONGER CNTRL WTRS BUT HAVE DROPPED GALE AND GONE WITH SCA REST OF WTRS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS GRAD SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. MONDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT...POSS STILL SOME 5 FOOTERS OVER OUTER CNTRL WTRS. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUN...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS N/NW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND WED. EXPECT N/NW WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER LATE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING...ONE OFF THE SE COAST AND ONE OVER THE OH VALLEY...AND MERGING INTO ONE OFF THE EAST COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WILL MAINTAIN SW/W FLOW LESS THAN 15KT THU THEN INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE NW THU NIGHT INTO FRI. PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103- 104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...RF/CQD MARINE...RF/JME/CQD