943 
FXUS61 KBGM 280003
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. STEADY SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SET UP ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
515 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NY COUNTIES WEST
OF I-81 IN LOWER DEWPOINT ATMOSPHERE. BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC SNOW IS ALONG
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. WESTWARD - JUST A FEW RADAR RETURNS
AND MAJORITY OF OBS ARE REPORTING DRY WEATHER. AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON...THE EVENT WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT OVER NORTHERN
FA. 

3 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP STILL IN NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
RAIN HAS NOW MOSTLY CHANGED TO SNOW. THIS WILL LIFT NE BY 6 PM AS
THE LARGE SFC LOW IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. NW FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT STARTING. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALIGNS AND COLDER AIR COMES IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. WITH A 320 FLOW IT WILL BE
MULTIBANDS. GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION COMES INTO PLAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS SOME TO WNW. MOISTURE DEPTH OF 10KT. DENDRITE ZONE OF 2K FT
STARTS AROUND 6K THEN DROPS TO 4K LATE TONIGHT. GOOD LIFT THROUGH
THE MOISTURE AND DENDRITE ZONES. ISSUED A LES ADVISORY FOR
ONONDAGA ONEIDA MADISON FOR TONIGHT TO THU NGT. 

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT IN CENTRAL NY...NE PA WILL BE CLOUDY
AND MOSTLY DRY. CAA IS STRONG WITH TEMPS FALLING UPPER TEENS AND
L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

THU MORNING A LULL BEFORE A SHORT WAVE DROPS SE HELPING TO ENHANCE
THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO 290 BRINGING THE BEST
BAND INTO SYRACUSE AND ONEIDA AND CAZENOVIA. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THU NGT. MULTILAKE
CONNECTION FROM GEORGIAN BAY. COULD BE A GOOD ENOUGH BAND FOR
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AN HOUR SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS THU PM
3 TO 5 INCHES.

FRIDAY COLD NW LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL GOING AS A LARGE DRY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NW. LL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND IS
SHEARED SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EVERYWHERE BEFORE LES SHUTS DOWN FRI AFTN. HIGH OVER THE CWA FRI
NGT AND STALLS INTO SAT NGT. WAA AT 850MB KICKS IN WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. SFC TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL AND MOSTLY BELOW
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WV DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. DFRNCS
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS WILL HAVE LTL EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR THE SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPNSAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS MRGNL...BUT LOOKS COLD ENUF FOR SOME LGT SNOW MOST
PLACE...ESP NORTH. SLGTLY MILDER OVER NEPA BUT WITH A LWR CHANCE
PF PCPN IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DFRNC. SYSTEM, PASSES THRU SUN BUT
LEAVES THE AREA IN A SHALLOW UT BROAD UPR TROF OVER THE
LAKES...AND WEAK AREA OF MOISTURE PCPN. EURO SUGGESTS SOME WEAK
CSTL DVLPMT ON TUE PERHAPS ORGANIZING THE PCPN A BIT MORE. GFS HAS
DVLPMT FURTHER OUT TO SEA BUT STILL SOME ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES. HWVR...IN GNRL JUST A SEASONABLY COOL PD WITH LGT PCPN
AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 00Z, A BRIEF BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WAS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
AND IT WILL AFFECT THE KRME TAF THROUGH 01Z WITH IFR SNOW
SHOWERS. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KELM/KAVP WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
BE PRIMARILY VFR.

AT KSYR, A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
BRING CONDITIONS TO IFR BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
18Z WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AIRPORT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z AND
THEREFORE INCLUDED BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS HERE.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS DIMINISHING
TO 10-12 KNOTS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT TO SUN MORN...MAINLY VFR.
 
SUN AFTN TO MON...MVFR AND MAYBE IFR IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM