943 FXUS61 KBGM 280003 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 703 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STEADY SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 515 PM UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NY COUNTIES WEST OF I-81 IN LOWER DEWPOINT ATMOSPHERE. BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC SNOW IS ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. WESTWARD - JUST A FEW RADAR RETURNS AND MAJORITY OF OBS ARE REPORTING DRY WEATHER. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...THE EVENT WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT OVER NORTHERN FA. 3 PM UPDATE... BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP STILL IN NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. RAIN HAS NOW MOSTLY CHANGED TO SNOW. THIS WILL LIFT NE BY 6 PM AS THE LARGE SFC LOW IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. NW FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT STARTING. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALIGNS AND COLDER AIR COMES IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. WITH A 320 FLOW IT WILL BE MULTIBANDS. GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION COMES INTO PLAY AS THE FLOW SHIFTS SOME TO WNW. MOISTURE DEPTH OF 10KT. DENDRITE ZONE OF 2K FT STARTS AROUND 6K THEN DROPS TO 4K LATE TONIGHT. GOOD LIFT THROUGH THE MOISTURE AND DENDRITE ZONES. ISSUED A LES ADVISORY FOR ONONDAGA ONEIDA MADISON FOR TONIGHT TO THU NGT. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT IN CENTRAL NY...NE PA WILL BE CLOUDY AND MOSTLY DRY. CAA IS STRONG WITH TEMPS FALLING UPPER TEENS AND L20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... THU MORNING A LULL BEFORE A SHORT WAVE DROPS SE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO 290 BRINGING THE BEST BAND INTO SYRACUSE AND ONEIDA AND CAZENOVIA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THU NGT. MULTILAKE CONNECTION FROM GEORGIAN BAY. COULD BE A GOOD ENOUGH BAND FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AN HOUR SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS THU PM 3 TO 5 INCHES. FRIDAY COLD NW LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL GOING AS A LARGE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NW. LL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND IS SHEARED SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES EVERYWHERE BEFORE LES SHUTS DOWN FRI AFTN. HIGH OVER THE CWA FRI NGT AND STALLS INTO SAT NGT. WAA AT 850MB KICKS IN WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. SFC TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL AND MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WV DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. DFRNCS BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS WILL HAVE LTL EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WX FOR THE SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPNSAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS MRGNL...BUT LOOKS COLD ENUF FOR SOME LGT SNOW MOST PLACE...ESP NORTH. SLGTLY MILDER OVER NEPA BUT WITH A LWR CHANCE PF PCPN IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DFRNC. SYSTEM, PASSES THRU SUN BUT LEAVES THE AREA IN A SHALLOW UT BROAD UPR TROF OVER THE LAKES...AND WEAK AREA OF MOISTURE PCPN. EURO SUGGESTS SOME WEAK CSTL DVLPMT ON TUE PERHAPS ORGANIZING THE PCPN A BIT MORE. GFS HAS DVLPMT FURTHER OUT TO SEA BUT STILL SOME ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE ERN ZONES. HWVR...IN GNRL JUST A SEASONABLY COOL PD WITH LGT PCPN AT TIMES. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT 00Z, A BRIEF BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WAS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND IT WILL AFFECT THE KRME TAF THROUGH 01Z WITH IFR SNOW SHOWERS. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KELM/KAVP WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. AT KSYR, A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND BRING CONDITIONS TO IFR BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z AND THEREFORE INCLUDED BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS HERE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 10-12 KNOTS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT TO SUN MORN...MAINLY VFR. SUN AFTN TO MON...MVFR AND MAYBE IFR IN MIXED PRECIP. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018- 036-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...RRM