552 
FXUS64 KLUB 252100
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CST MON NOV 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HELPED FEED MOISTURE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WINTER 
WEATHER STORM WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT MID DAY.  THE LOW CENTER 
WILL MAKE AN INTERESTING TRAJECTORY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING 
AND MAKING IT INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE 
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT PHASES WITH A MAIN STREAM DIVING 
THROUGH MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW 
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING IN.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY 
AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR NW TO SE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY 
MORNING.  GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WE MAY SEE A FEW 
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 10 KTS AND THOUGH 
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL REMAINS ON THE GROUND...COMBINATION OF SPEEDS 
AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP FOG THREAT TO A MINIMUM THOUGH 
GIVEN THE SNOWPACK...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY FOG NORTHWEST. 
SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE RATHER COLD 
AGAIN OVER DEEPER SNOWPACK SRN PANAHANDLE WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 
TEENS. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. 40S 
AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...AND THEN 50S ON THURSDAY AS FLAT 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MAY BE PUSHING 55-60 DEGREES SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE LEE TROUGH 
DEEPENS FROM ERN CO INTO NERN NM AND WEST TEXAS. NEXT SYSTEM OF 
INTEREST IS POS TILTED OPEN WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER 
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN LATE FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE...LIKELY SOME LOW CLOUDS 
CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS. GFS FOR NOW KEEPS SHOWERS EAST OF THE 
AREA. MAY SEE FRONT INTO AREA ON SUNDAY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF 
SYSTEM LIKELY MEANS A DRY FRONT...AND ONLY SLIGHT COOLDOWN.

BOTH GFS AND PREV ECMWF ADVERTISING BIG PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY OF 
NEXT WEEK (DEC. 4) WITH CRASHING HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IF 
SOME SEMBLANCE OF THIS PATTERN IS REALIZED...COULD TURN MUCH COLDER 
AROUND THIS TIME...WITH WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLY MAKING A RETURN. 
DOES BEAR WATCHING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        18  43  17  39  23 /  10   0   0   0   0 
TULIA         21  42  18  39  23 /  10   0   0   0   0 
PLAINVIEW     22  43  20  44  25 /  10   0   0   0   0 
LEVELLAND     21  45  20  44  25 /  10   0   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       23  45  22  48  27 /  10   0   0   0   0 
DENVER CITY   23  46  23  48  25 /  10   0   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    23  46  22  48  25 /  10   0   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     23  47  24  45  26 /  10   0   0   0   0 
SPUR          26  48  22  48  27 /  10   0   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     25  49  26  48  29 /  10  10   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/06