552 FXUS64 KLUB 252100 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 300 PM CST MON NOV 25 2013 .SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HELPED FEED MOISTURE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WINTER WEATHER STORM WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT MID DAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL MAKE AN INTERESTING TRAJECTORY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MAKING IT INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT PHASES WITH A MAIN STREAM DIVING THROUGH MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR NW TO SE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WE MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 10 KTS AND THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL REMAINS ON THE GROUND...COMBINATION OF SPEEDS AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP FOG THREAT TO A MINIMUM THOUGH GIVEN THE SNOWPACK...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY FOG NORTHWEST. SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE RATHER COLD AGAIN OVER DEEPER SNOWPACK SRN PANAHANDLE WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE TEENS. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. 40S AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...AND THEN 50S ON THURSDAY AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAY BE PUSHING 55-60 DEGREES SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM ERN CO INTO NERN NM AND WEST TEXAS. NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS POS TILTED OPEN WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE...LIKELY SOME LOW CLOUDS CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS. GFS FOR NOW KEEPS SHOWERS EAST OF THE AREA. MAY SEE FRONT INTO AREA ON SUNDAY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM LIKELY MEANS A DRY FRONT...AND ONLY SLIGHT COOLDOWN. BOTH GFS AND PREV ECMWF ADVERTISING BIG PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK (DEC. 4) WITH CRASHING HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IF SOME SEMBLANCE OF THIS PATTERN IS REALIZED...COULD TURN MUCH COLDER AROUND THIS TIME...WITH WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLY MAKING A RETURN. DOES BEAR WATCHING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 18 43 17 39 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 TULIA 21 42 18 39 23 / 10 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 22 43 20 44 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 21 45 20 44 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 23 45 22 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 23 46 23 48 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 23 46 22 48 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 23 47 24 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 0 SPUR 26 48 22 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 25 49 26 48 29 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 26/06