654 
FXUS63 KMPX 210021 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013
/ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN/

WELL DEVELOPED INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW OVER SERN
NEB ACROSS NWRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ERN CONUS
IS PRODUCING LARGE PRESS GRADIENT OVER ERN CWA WITH 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT AXIS LOCATED IN THIS CORRIDOR. A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
IS MOVING ACROSS WRN IOWA...EMBEDDED IN A MID LVL FLOW THAT IS
BACKING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF TROF OVER NRN
ROCKIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS PUSHING NORTH INTO ERN EDGE OF CWA
WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO UVV/DGZ PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013 
/ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN/

AREA OF SNOW OVER RUSH/CHIPPEWA/EAU CLAIR COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING AS FAVORED DGZ/OMEGA COUPLET MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER RATES CAN BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE SIG ACCUMULATION THAN CURRENTLY FCST...1 TO 2 INCHES.
ONCE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST...PTYPE MAY
TRANSITION BACK TO R/S OR JUST DRIZZLE AS ICE NUCLEATION LAYER
ERODES. AS WEAK WAVE SLIDE QUICKLY NNE INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ADVANCEMENT OF SFC HIGH INTO
WRN/CTRL CWA. STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO CWA. AN AREA OF SNOW/INCREASING WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE BDRY AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREAS BY MID AFTN. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013
/ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN/

ARCTIC FRNTL BDRY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF REGION THUR NIGHT AS A WEAK
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CTRL PLAINS. LIMITED SFC
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS CWA AS COLD LAYER WILL HAVE DEEPENED
TOO MUCH AND MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE A
BAND OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS SRN/ERN TIER OF CWA WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE A COLD EXTENDED PERIOD AHEAD. SECONDARY
ARCTIC BDRY ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LARGE SFC HIGH
SATURDAY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH
MOVING EAST AS WAA REGIME INCREASES SUNDAY. LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LVL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO DEEPER NWRLY FLOW. MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED
SFC BOUNDARIES SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY.

TEMPS WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY BEFORE
MODIFICATION OCCURS SUNDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR MOON NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL
AGAIN TO MUCH BLO TYPICAL SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013

A SLUG OF MOISTURE OVER FAR ERN MN AND WRN WI APPEARS TO BE GOING
NO WHERE QUICK WITH MVFR CIGS PREVALENT IN THIS AREA. SOME MUCH
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ONGOING IN A NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR
EAU. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT MSP...RWF
AND EAU. FURTHER WEST...THE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND AM
ANTICIPATING A VFR EVENING FOR STC...RWF...AND AXN. LATER
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND WILL BRING MVFR CIGS
BEHIND IT. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THURSDAY UNTIL
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF RWF...MSP...AND RNH...THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW - PARTICULARLY NEAR EAU THURSDAY EVENING
WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE IA BORDER.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH...IF NOT THE
WHOLE THE PERIOD WITH SUB 017 CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE SNOW CAN FALL THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SHUNTED
THE BEST POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MSP MOSTLY DRY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS. 
FRI NIGHT/SAT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS. 
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...BORGHOFF